r/lebanon • u/Residual-Heat • Apr 08 '26

Vent / Rant Everyone's a winner (except Lebanon)

Depending on who you ask everyone is a winner. Israel and USA say they won, Iran and Hezbollah will claim victory.

Lebanon is left with 1500+ dead civilians, nearly a million refugees, and occupied lands in the south.

127 Upvotes

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46

u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

IF the 10 points put forth by Iran are reached, or even if it’s close to it. it’s a strategic win for Iran and let’s not kid ourselves.

The whole point of this war was regime change, destroying Irans ballistic missile program, denuclearising Iran and what has happened is Iran is firmly in power, Ballistic missiles have been hurt but still operational, Iran still holds onto 60% enriched Uranium, and now has de facto control of the strait of Hormuz.

The fact that Iran survived the onslaught of Nuclear Powers is itself an achievement

12

u/mgh20 Apr 08 '26

Don’t believe what Iran says it negotiated, the regime is so weak internally that they can’t afford to lose any face.

The real terms of the agreement will come out of the US because it’s subject for congress approval.

0

u/oussamawd Apr 09 '26

This was confirmed by Iran, the US, and Pakistan, and you clearly don't know anything about war if you think the terms are subject to congress approval, if you're under attack the terms are subject to congress approval, but if you're the aggressor and you launched the war without congress approval to begin with, the terms are set by the winner, in this case Iran defeated the military campaign and retained its sovereignty, the US needs an off ramp, congress will approve whatever it's given to it, because congress needs an end to the war.. the 10 points were already accepted as a framework for the negotiations, confirmed by all parties involved.. too bad we won't see those negotiations anymore until Israel is either restrained or gets even more pummeled by Iran

1

u/mgh20 Apr 09 '26

Ok 👌 congrats on your victory. Now make sure to run for shelter before the bombs hit you.

1

u/oussamawd Apr 09 '26

My victory? Are you retarded? Shou khassne bi Iran? Do you just consider anyone who understands war strategy and geopolitics an Iranian if they say Iran achieved something? Does this make me an Israeli or an American if I said the opposite? Because according to your logic I should call you a Zionist.. walla when it's the other way around it's just critical thinking?

2

u/itcouldvbeenbetterif Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26

That's confirmation bias...

Iran won on many fronts and lost on many other fronts as well. At the end of the day, by agreeing to a cease fire, iran lost its deterence. It's 2006 all over again.

2006, 7ezb said it's victorious, but it gave iarael 20 years of peace where israel used those 20 years to find a way to weaken hezbollah, kill their leaders, block their border pass, isolate them, and page them to death

Iran is a strong opponent that u don't kill with one blow, but with a thousand small cuts during years

That's where we r heading

1

u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

Whatever happens in 20 years happens in 20 years and we can have that discussion then.

But as of right now I don’t see really any strategic victory for US. Maybe you can argue for Israel it got to return Iran back 10 years. But I think it’s pretty obvious all things considered that the US lost the initiative to the war about 2-3 weeks in, and try as they might failed to achieve the objectives they sought out in the first place.

1

u/itcouldvbeenbetterif Apr 08 '26

Yeah true. They only gave a spanking to iran and somehow contained the tantrum

4

u/Residual-Heat Apr 08 '26

The deal hasn't been signed yet, we'll see. But yes you could argue it was a strategic win for them... I always thought this would be the case as TACO Trump didn't really have a plan going in, or at least nothing realistic.

Despite Iran's leadership being decimated and militarily they were crushed, he achieved nothing that will affect the regime long term.

How does that help Lebanon? Iran better pay for reconstructing the south though they have to pay to rebuild their own country too.

You could also argue Israel won btw as they weakened the regime and expanded their borders.

8

u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

My point was more that Iran has a tangible argument for a victory than the US or Israel

With regards to Lebanon, it’s depends how this all plays out.

If we get a total Israeli withdrawal, Israel stops its assasination allows the reconstruction of Jnoub. Then it’s definitely a win for lebanon. We have been trying to achieve this for the past 15 months through diplomacy.

Let’s see what happens, right now anything can happen from a continuation of war to US agreeing to terms and conditions. Let’s see

5

u/Starfire376 Lebanese Apr 08 '26

I doubt that's the case.

They were saying they wanted a perma end to the war and not a ceasefire, and look where we are now.

They are saying they won and got the 10 points, but that's the typical propaganda they spread on their news so that their followers believe that. It's probably just them trying to save face and agree to a lot of the US points.

2

u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

I don’t think the US will agree to the 10 points. There will be concessions by the Iranians.

But at the same time it’s very apparent that the US wants to end the war asap. Remember Iran isn’t the centre of the US world, they have an empire to run and the further deterioration of the global economy hurts their position in the world.

No one is saying Iran got the 10 points, we are saying that Iran proposed the 10 points, and on that basis a ceasefire has been created, which in it of itself is crazy.

3

u/Starfire376 Lebanese Apr 08 '26

We shall see which of those 10 points will be in fact in the deal. However, we forget to mention the 15 points by the US.

I don't see a way they will make a deal without including the uranium, proxies, and limiting their ballistic missiles while removing sanctions.

0

u/thefreethinker9 Apr 08 '26

Uranium is definitely a no go for the US. At best case scenario they would allow Iran to keep uranium for power but without enrichment capabilities. Regarding proxies I can see them finding a deal maybe no more ballistic missiles or long range missiles but they get to keep their influence sphere. On the Iranian ballistics I find it hard for Iran to give in on that point. That is basically what guarantees their survival. On the strait I find it very very unlikely that the US will let Iran control it. I think they d be willing to let them keep the proxies over the strait. This is purely my guess and all this could be BS just the US buying time to better prepare and end them once and for all. The US has strategic studies and simulations done decades ago for all kinds of scenarios for dealing with Iran. None of them include allowing Iran control of the strait and Nuclear and proxies.

-4

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

Zero understanding of geopolitics.. it's the US and Israel who will be forced to pay reparations if the deal is signed, not Iran.. they may give Iran leverage over Hormuz in order to collect money instead of paying them the entire amount, they may offer them deals or favorable trades where Iran would be making a fortune, if Iran helps Lebanon financially it will be from the US indirectly.. it's up to Lebanon to go fight Israel in the ICJ and the ICC and the UN now.. and Israel lost everything, as soon as the war ends bibi faces trial and goes to jail, the US will move towards impeachment for Trump, and the first thing they will do to be able to get out of this mess is to end aid for Israel.. whereas Hezbollah will still be allied with Iran who will be headed towards becoming an actual economic powerhouse in the region, if the Lebanese government doesn't shake hands with Iran then I'm sure Hezbollah will rebuild the south with the help of Iran and increase its weapon arsenal and protect its own people and the government and the army will be sidelined (and rightfully so in case Lebanon doesn't fix it's foreign policy), this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to arm our army and make amends with south and help merge hezbollah's military with the Lebanese army, if we stop sucking up for Americans (who know nothing but to exploit) and shake hands with Iranians (who want nothing more than to be loved by its neighbors and restore its heritage)

3

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

If Hezbos wanted to do the right thing and join the army they would've done it a long time ago. Stop blaming the government for the consequences of their own decisions. Had they joined the army, ken li bi sir aalayun b sir aal balad kelo, but you can't go starting wars then cry that the army is not protecting you. Yes the government can't protect anyone against the blue criminals, that's why they don't go waging random wars against them.

-2

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

You expect Hezbollah to join the army under an American hegemony? Are you out of your mind? The army isn't allowed to have gear that can defend against Israel, the disarmament isn't meant to arm Lebanon, it's meant to disarm Lebanon, those defensive missiles were meant to be destroyed or surrendered to the US.. the entire picture changes with the US changing it's foreign policy regarding the middle east after a failed was of choice and the Israeli retreat after losing funding.. if this deal goes through and Iran gets what it wants, rest assured the only path forward will be a merger between the army and Hezbollah

4

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

So if the army is not allowed to have gear, we go create a whole armed wing from external funding, with better equipment than the actual army, use our leverage in the political system to control everything in the country and spread bureaucracy, go on a series of assassinations for 30 years, and having the ultimate decision over dragging the whole country into a war. Imagine doing all that and having the audacity to blame the government for not protecting you. As for the Hezb combatants joining the army if this happens, where did you get this idea? Did you not see the countless videos, interviews, etc... of Hezb supporters and even decision makers saying "ntoro bas ta nofdalkun"?

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

I'm simply answering your point about the hezeb joining the army, you say law baddon keno 3emlowa, I'm telling you leh ma 3emlowa, w lesh ma32oul ba3d hal 7arb ya3mlowa.. the discussion wasn't about hezbollah's choices, wen ro7et Khayyeh? As for the videos of supporters, I've seen worse from people who despise ordinary shias, and honestly after the way the government handled the situation and turned its back on the people of the south I wouldn't expect anything less, ra7 yetfaddoulon I'm sure.. just not the way you think.. if Israel retreats and the US stops aiding them militarily to the extent that they used to, the Lebanese position will shift, the only way to maintain the survival of a Lebanese state will be to stop demonizing Hezbollah and work hand in hand for a better future

1

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

I don't think I dragged it too far from the main discussion. If you don't think those have something to do with the ideology of HA and why they won't go hand in hand with the government, that's a problem. So regarding of what you said are the reasons, I guess this is going to be surprising for you but those ain't why Hezb won't join the army 💀

The government turned its back on what happened for 15 months in the South argument that never fails... Bro by the end of the first war, HA signed an agreement that they will give up their arsenal, so while the government was "turning its back to them", it was supposed to be fighting them and forcing them to give up their weapons. Which it didn't, to prevent an internal war. Why is this point so blurry for Hezb? This whole time they were being attacked, it was part of a deal they signed to stop the first war. The government wasn't supposed to protect them, in fact it was supposed to take away their weapons! Which actually happened only one time where they said le2yo makhzan sleh bi saida and the poor army went to investigate and boom hezb ken mfakhakhlun.

Leh ma aam te2naao eno obviously lnes ma ha theb hal hezeb after kelshi aamlo? Hopefully eza the outcome bi kun metel ma aam t2ul they will have the chance to redeem themselves bas I don't think this is how it's going to go down after everything that we're hearing. You don't say "bukra btshufo shu ha naamil fikun bas tokhlas lhareb" and mean "bas tkhlas lharb ha neje nhot idna b idkun w nhebkun"

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

You are unbelievably dense.. I am literally telling you I'm not talking about any of that, I'm simply answering one simple point you raised, which is why the hezeb could not and would not join the army in a world where the army isn't allowed to carry heavy weaponry.. and here you are still discussing the same thing, min jeb Siret kill hol Khayyeh? Enta elet law baddon keno min zamen ndammo, ana 3am b2ellak el sabab yalle byemna3on yendammo, ma baddak tet2abbal stofil, nothing you said addresses my answer to you, you wanna ignore it and justify your deflection by saying everything is connected, ba3mel metlak? I can talk about the civil war and the massacres and the invasion and a million other things, how would that address the initial point you raised?

1

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

Bro used the most used speech tactic for hezb, li b sher3ak b kun kezzeb, aw ahbal, w eza mara sharmouta.

You brought out hezb joining the army after all this, the to2sir ldawle with the South, and us demonizing hezb. When I reply, sort dense w min jeb siretun w nehna bas aam nehke aan leh lhezeb ma ndam lal jesh before w leh they might/might never do it, lean kel comment shi.

Hal2ad btefham khaye..

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3

u/AccomplishedSoft1350 Apr 08 '26

Hahahahah. I really need to get whatever you Hezbots are smoking.

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

I gave up on telling you morons that I'm not with Hezbollah a long time ago, but if you want some of what I'm smoking, it's called geopolitics, research, alternative media, economics, to name a few.. you should try, you could use the boost in intelligence over that lame ass sarcasm of yours

1

u/NoHetro Apr 08 '26

I very highly doubt Israel would accept any agreement where Iran gets to have nuclear weapons, that's the main contention that started the war and brought the US, now maybe the US would leave Israel high and dry but I doubt that as well.