r/lebanon • u/Residual-Heat • Apr 08 '26

Vent / Rant Everyone's a winner (except Lebanon)

Depending on who you ask everyone is a winner. Israel and USA say they won, Iran and Hezbollah will claim victory.

Lebanon is left with 1500+ dead civilians, nearly a million refugees, and occupied lands in the south.

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u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

IF the 10 points put forth by Iran are reached, or even if it’s close to it. it’s a strategic win for Iran and let’s not kid ourselves.

The whole point of this war was regime change, destroying Irans ballistic missile program, denuclearising Iran and what has happened is Iran is firmly in power, Ballistic missiles have been hurt but still operational, Iran still holds onto 60% enriched Uranium, and now has de facto control of the strait of Hormuz.

The fact that Iran survived the onslaught of Nuclear Powers is itself an achievement

5

u/Residual-Heat Apr 08 '26

The deal hasn't been signed yet, we'll see. But yes you could argue it was a strategic win for them... I always thought this would be the case as TACO Trump didn't really have a plan going in, or at least nothing realistic.

Despite Iran's leadership being decimated and militarily they were crushed, he achieved nothing that will affect the regime long term.

How does that help Lebanon? Iran better pay for reconstructing the south though they have to pay to rebuild their own country too.

You could also argue Israel won btw as they weakened the regime and expanded their borders.

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u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

My point was more that Iran has a tangible argument for a victory than the US or Israel

With regards to Lebanon, it’s depends how this all plays out.

If we get a total Israeli withdrawal, Israel stops its assasination allows the reconstruction of Jnoub. Then it’s definitely a win for lebanon. We have been trying to achieve this for the past 15 months through diplomacy.

Let’s see what happens, right now anything can happen from a continuation of war to US agreeing to terms and conditions. Let’s see

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u/Starfire376 Lebanese Apr 08 '26

I doubt that's the case.

They were saying they wanted a perma end to the war and not a ceasefire, and look where we are now.

They are saying they won and got the 10 points, but that's the typical propaganda they spread on their news so that their followers believe that. It's probably just them trying to save face and agree to a lot of the US points.

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u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

I don’t think the US will agree to the 10 points. There will be concessions by the Iranians.

But at the same time it’s very apparent that the US wants to end the war asap. Remember Iran isn’t the centre of the US world, they have an empire to run and the further deterioration of the global economy hurts their position in the world.

No one is saying Iran got the 10 points, we are saying that Iran proposed the 10 points, and on that basis a ceasefire has been created, which in it of itself is crazy.

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u/Starfire376 Lebanese Apr 08 '26

We shall see which of those 10 points will be in fact in the deal. However, we forget to mention the 15 points by the US.

I don't see a way they will make a deal without including the uranium, proxies, and limiting their ballistic missiles while removing sanctions.

0

u/thefreethinker9 Apr 08 '26

Uranium is definitely a no go for the US. At best case scenario they would allow Iran to keep uranium for power but without enrichment capabilities. Regarding proxies I can see them finding a deal maybe no more ballistic missiles or long range missiles but they get to keep their influence sphere. On the Iranian ballistics I find it hard for Iran to give in on that point. That is basically what guarantees their survival. On the strait I find it very very unlikely that the US will let Iran control it. I think they d be willing to let them keep the proxies over the strait. This is purely my guess and all this could be BS just the US buying time to better prepare and end them once and for all. The US has strategic studies and simulations done decades ago for all kinds of scenarios for dealing with Iran. None of them include allowing Iran control of the strait and Nuclear and proxies.