r/lebanon • u/Residual-Heat • Apr 08 '26

Vent / Rant Everyone's a winner (except Lebanon)

Depending on who you ask everyone is a winner. Israel and USA say they won, Iran and Hezbollah will claim victory.

Lebanon is left with 1500+ dead civilians, nearly a million refugees, and occupied lands in the south.

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46

u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

IF the 10 points put forth by Iran are reached, or even if it’s close to it. it’s a strategic win for Iran and let’s not kid ourselves.

The whole point of this war was regime change, destroying Irans ballistic missile program, denuclearising Iran and what has happened is Iran is firmly in power, Ballistic missiles have been hurt but still operational, Iran still holds onto 60% enriched Uranium, and now has de facto control of the strait of Hormuz.

The fact that Iran survived the onslaught of Nuclear Powers is itself an achievement

3

u/Residual-Heat Apr 08 '26

The deal hasn't been signed yet, we'll see. But yes you could argue it was a strategic win for them... I always thought this would be the case as TACO Trump didn't really have a plan going in, or at least nothing realistic.

Despite Iran's leadership being decimated and militarily they were crushed, he achieved nothing that will affect the regime long term.

How does that help Lebanon? Iran better pay for reconstructing the south though they have to pay to rebuild their own country too.

You could also argue Israel won btw as they weakened the regime and expanded their borders.

-2

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

Zero understanding of geopolitics.. it's the US and Israel who will be forced to pay reparations if the deal is signed, not Iran.. they may give Iran leverage over Hormuz in order to collect money instead of paying them the entire amount, they may offer them deals or favorable trades where Iran would be making a fortune, if Iran helps Lebanon financially it will be from the US indirectly.. it's up to Lebanon to go fight Israel in the ICJ and the ICC and the UN now.. and Israel lost everything, as soon as the war ends bibi faces trial and goes to jail, the US will move towards impeachment for Trump, and the first thing they will do to be able to get out of this mess is to end aid for Israel.. whereas Hezbollah will still be allied with Iran who will be headed towards becoming an actual economic powerhouse in the region, if the Lebanese government doesn't shake hands with Iran then I'm sure Hezbollah will rebuild the south with the help of Iran and increase its weapon arsenal and protect its own people and the government and the army will be sidelined (and rightfully so in case Lebanon doesn't fix it's foreign policy), this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to arm our army and make amends with south and help merge hezbollah's military with the Lebanese army, if we stop sucking up for Americans (who know nothing but to exploit) and shake hands with Iranians (who want nothing more than to be loved by its neighbors and restore its heritage)

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u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

If Hezbos wanted to do the right thing and join the army they would've done it a long time ago. Stop blaming the government for the consequences of their own decisions. Had they joined the army, ken li bi sir aalayun b sir aal balad kelo, but you can't go starting wars then cry that the army is not protecting you. Yes the government can't protect anyone against the blue criminals, that's why they don't go waging random wars against them.

-2

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

You expect Hezbollah to join the army under an American hegemony? Are you out of your mind? The army isn't allowed to have gear that can defend against Israel, the disarmament isn't meant to arm Lebanon, it's meant to disarm Lebanon, those defensive missiles were meant to be destroyed or surrendered to the US.. the entire picture changes with the US changing it's foreign policy regarding the middle east after a failed was of choice and the Israeli retreat after losing funding.. if this deal goes through and Iran gets what it wants, rest assured the only path forward will be a merger between the army and Hezbollah

4

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

So if the army is not allowed to have gear, we go create a whole armed wing from external funding, with better equipment than the actual army, use our leverage in the political system to control everything in the country and spread bureaucracy, go on a series of assassinations for 30 years, and having the ultimate decision over dragging the whole country into a war. Imagine doing all that and having the audacity to blame the government for not protecting you. As for the Hezb combatants joining the army if this happens, where did you get this idea? Did you not see the countless videos, interviews, etc... of Hezb supporters and even decision makers saying "ntoro bas ta nofdalkun"?

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

I'm simply answering your point about the hezeb joining the army, you say law baddon keno 3emlowa, I'm telling you leh ma 3emlowa, w lesh ma32oul ba3d hal 7arb ya3mlowa.. the discussion wasn't about hezbollah's choices, wen ro7et Khayyeh? As for the videos of supporters, I've seen worse from people who despise ordinary shias, and honestly after the way the government handled the situation and turned its back on the people of the south I wouldn't expect anything less, ra7 yetfaddoulon I'm sure.. just not the way you think.. if Israel retreats and the US stops aiding them militarily to the extent that they used to, the Lebanese position will shift, the only way to maintain the survival of a Lebanese state will be to stop demonizing Hezbollah and work hand in hand for a better future

1

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

I don't think I dragged it too far from the main discussion. If you don't think those have something to do with the ideology of HA and why they won't go hand in hand with the government, that's a problem. So regarding of what you said are the reasons, I guess this is going to be surprising for you but those ain't why Hezb won't join the army 💀

The government turned its back on what happened for 15 months in the South argument that never fails... Bro by the end of the first war, HA signed an agreement that they will give up their arsenal, so while the government was "turning its back to them", it was supposed to be fighting them and forcing them to give up their weapons. Which it didn't, to prevent an internal war. Why is this point so blurry for Hezb? This whole time they were being attacked, it was part of a deal they signed to stop the first war. The government wasn't supposed to protect them, in fact it was supposed to take away their weapons! Which actually happened only one time where they said le2yo makhzan sleh bi saida and the poor army went to investigate and boom hezb ken mfakhakhlun.

Leh ma aam te2naao eno obviously lnes ma ha theb hal hezeb after kelshi aamlo? Hopefully eza the outcome bi kun metel ma aam t2ul they will have the chance to redeem themselves bas I don't think this is how it's going to go down after everything that we're hearing. You don't say "bukra btshufo shu ha naamil fikun bas tokhlas lhareb" and mean "bas tkhlas lharb ha neje nhot idna b idkun w nhebkun"

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

You are unbelievably dense.. I am literally telling you I'm not talking about any of that, I'm simply answering one simple point you raised, which is why the hezeb could not and would not join the army in a world where the army isn't allowed to carry heavy weaponry.. and here you are still discussing the same thing, min jeb Siret kill hol Khayyeh? Enta elet law baddon keno min zamen ndammo, ana 3am b2ellak el sabab yalle byemna3on yendammo, ma baddak tet2abbal stofil, nothing you said addresses my answer to you, you wanna ignore it and justify your deflection by saying everything is connected, ba3mel metlak? I can talk about the civil war and the massacres and the invasion and a million other things, how would that address the initial point you raised?

1

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

Bro used the most used speech tactic for hezb, li b sher3ak b kun kezzeb, aw ahbal, w eza mara sharmouta.

You brought out hezb joining the army after all this, the to2sir ldawle with the South, and us demonizing hezb. When I reply, sort dense w min jeb siretun w nehna bas aam nehke aan leh lhezeb ma ndam lal jesh before w leh they might/might never do it, lean kel comment shi.

Hal2ad btefham khaye..

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

So basically what I hear is you always ignore the points other people raise and deflect and drag the conversation to a different place, and then they tell you about it, and you label them as hezeb, you've basically labeled everything that you're unable to confront as a "hezeb tactic".. and you're doubling down on stupid and still refusing to look back at the point I made and now you want to make the entire focus on the part about the second part about joining after the war, that part is still unrelated to the initial point you raised, to which I replied.. khallik 3a ghalatak, w 2oul 3anne ma befham (it's literally the hezeb tactic you accused me of), projection to the extreme

1

u/Mr8addad Lebanese Apr 08 '26

Bro hkit aan klshi ent hkit aano and still addressed the main thing we were talking about. And you kept saying eno I'm dragging the conversation la gher mahalet.. And when I call you out for it you take it completely out of context.

Khalas mart ltene bas ente tehke w t2elna leh lhezb byaamil li byaamlo ha nou2af kelna w nza2eflak.

Ent law btrakkiz ma knt aslan elet eno I labeled you as hezeb even tho I didn't. Meshe lhal man, shurake2 bl watan at the end of the day.

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u/AccomplishedSoft1350 Apr 08 '26

Hahahahah. I really need to get whatever you Hezbots are smoking.

1

u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

I gave up on telling you morons that I'm not with Hezbollah a long time ago, but if you want some of what I'm smoking, it's called geopolitics, research, alternative media, economics, to name a few.. you should try, you could use the boost in intelligence over that lame ass sarcasm of yours