r/lebanon • u/Residual-Heat • Apr 08 '26

Vent / Rant Everyone's a winner (except Lebanon)

Depending on who you ask everyone is a winner. Israel and USA say they won, Iran and Hezbollah will claim victory.

Lebanon is left with 1500+ dead civilians, nearly a million refugees, and occupied lands in the south.

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u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

IF the 10 points put forth by Iran are reached, or even if it’s close to it. it’s a strategic win for Iran and let’s not kid ourselves.

The whole point of this war was regime change, destroying Irans ballistic missile program, denuclearising Iran and what has happened is Iran is firmly in power, Ballistic missiles have been hurt but still operational, Iran still holds onto 60% enriched Uranium, and now has de facto control of the strait of Hormuz.

The fact that Iran survived the onslaught of Nuclear Powers is itself an achievement

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u/itcouldvbeenbetterif Apr 08 '26 edited Apr 08 '26

That's confirmation bias...

Iran won on many fronts and lost on many other fronts as well. At the end of the day, by agreeing to a cease fire, iran lost its deterence. It's 2006 all over again.

2006, 7ezb said it's victorious, but it gave iarael 20 years of peace where israel used those 20 years to find a way to weaken hezbollah, kill their leaders, block their border pass, isolate them, and page them to death

Iran is a strong opponent that u don't kill with one blow, but with a thousand small cuts during years

That's where we r heading

1

u/Countbat Lebanese Apr 08 '26

Whatever happens in 20 years happens in 20 years and we can have that discussion then.

But as of right now I don’t see really any strategic victory for US. Maybe you can argue for Israel it got to return Iran back 10 years. But I think it’s pretty obvious all things considered that the US lost the initiative to the war about 2-3 weeks in, and try as they might failed to achieve the objectives they sought out in the first place.

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u/itcouldvbeenbetterif Apr 08 '26

Yeah true. They only gave a spanking to iran and somehow contained the tantrum