r/moderatepolitics Federal worker fired without due process 1d ago

News Article Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to 'completely' block Strait of Hormuz: State media

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html

The article says Iran announced Monday it will cut off all negotiations with the U.S. and move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israeli military operations in Lebanon as ceasefire violations. Tehran also threatened to activate the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Oil prices jumped over 7 percent on the news.

The breakdown comes just days after Trump convened a Situation Room meeting to decide on a deal but left without making a decision. Trump posted on May 23 that a peace deal was "largely negotiated" and "Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly." Both sides launched new attacks in the following days, and Israel escalated in Lebanon with Netanyahu ordering strikes on Hezbollah-controlled Beirut suburbs. Iran's foreign minister said the ceasefire applies to all fronts including Lebanon, and violations on one front constitute violations on all.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively choked off since the war began on February 28, with ship traffic far below the prewar level of 100+ vessels per day. About a fifth of global oil supplies passed through the strait before the conflict. Gas prices had come down some in recent weeks on deal optimism, but that appears to be evaporating. There are also concerns Iran could impose a tolling system on ships transiting the strait.

Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran "really wants to make a deal" and told critics to "just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end. It always does!"

If Iran really wants to make a deal why are they walking away form negotiations? If the US is winning this war, why are we suing for peace?

The answer is because Iran's strategy is working. Our president and the "secretary of war" who was confirmed by one vote are not reliable sources of information.

They have been preparing for this war for decades and they know how to win it. Choking off a fifth of global oil supply has driven U.S. gas prices up 50%, cratered Trump's approval ratings, and Republicans are openly panicking about the midterms. They know the situation trump has created is FUBAR and they know they're cooked in november. Iran doesn't need to win on the battlefield. They just need to hold out and make the economic pain unsustainable until the administration comes to terms.

347 Upvotes

230 comments sorted by

View all comments

40

u/kitaknows 1d ago

You have to wonder what the conversations are actually like between the US and Israel behind closed doors. Knowing that Iran sees Israeli strikes in other regions as violating any ceasefires, are US representatives openly telling Israel, "Nah, it's fine, don't worry about that end of it and keep going"? Or is Israel just moving forward under the "easier to ask for forgiveness than permission" strategy until something gives? They have continually been cited as the reason Iran claims to be backing out and nothing is done differently, so is anyone even on the same page? Seems doubtful.

42

u/dr_sloan 1d ago

There’s been a fair bit of reporting that the Trump Administration is getting increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu push to keep the war going. Similarly, from the Israeli side, there’s been reporting that Netanyahu has been frustrated by Trump’s willingness to negotiate a peace deal.

It’s not really conspiratorial to think that Netanyahu is pursuing the Lebanon operations to tank the negotiations and restart the “hot” part of the conflict. The IDF’s ability to keep the war going without US support is going to be limited at this point too.

4

u/Living-Dimension7798 1d ago

Crazy fool in me wants Israel to really go at it.

So we can get out and watch them get their rewards. Continuing this on all sides, is suicidal.

Guess they really want to meet god like in the crusades. They’ll collapse without western money.

15

u/KentuckyFriedChingon Militant Centrist 1d ago

More war is just going to be bad for everyone. Imo, the U.S. can bankroll all of Israel's DEFENSIVE capabilities if it wants to (Iron Dome, radar, etc). Sure. Fine. Whatever. But we have really got to halt offensive weapons sales/donations, and make defensive aid contingent on Israel abstaining from attacking and settling their neighbors. There are too many dead kids for my taste, and the United States is partly to blame for giving Israel what it wants, when it wants it, with literally zero strings attached, for decades at this point.

12

u/Living-Dimension7798 1d ago edited 1d ago

I don’t even think that can be allowable at this point. Israel has shown a known capacity and willingness to turn defensive munitions and arms into offensive platforms.

Further, defensive munitions have made them bloodthirsty with an air of being untouchable. The dog needs reigning in. The Israelis are horrible liars about their intentions. As shown in their campaigns and usage of our material already.

I think they’ve burned through so much political capitol, they basically need cutting off and we need to shift heavier to the gulf countries and even Iran. Making us throw away our hegemony cause of something promised 3000 years ago(that has nothing to do with us), is only going to accelerate my viewpoint I think. Along with the Iranians being the diplomatically sound actor in all of this. Consistent basis of demands and retaliating, not initiating attacks. They seem more sane than either of us.

Realistically, their budget can now support the obviously going to be implemented Hornuz toll now. That’s where the Israeli budget can go. Paying for them dragging us(Trump own goal being this stupid and the only president in 40 years to test a known war game scenario, but i digress) into their mistake.

And this doesn’t even get into being colonized by Israeli lobbies. Lot of taxation without true representation going on.

2

u/KentuckyFriedChingon Militant Centrist 16h ago

 I don’t even think that can be allowable at this point. Israel has shown a known capacity and willingness to turn defensive munitions and arms into offensive platforms

"Don't attack your neighbors and don't utilize defensive aid for offensive means, or we will cut you off from all forms of aid, including intelligence." It's really not that hard.

 we need to shift heavier to the gulf countries and even Iran

Respectfully, this is an extremely out of left field take. Iran is a genocidal pariah state that is hated by literally all of its neighbors. We should absolutely, under any circumstances, NOT be "shifting to Iran".

 Realistically, their budget can now support the obviously going to be implemented Hornuz toll now.

Iran can in no way be permitted to charge a toll for passage across international waters, even if it was solely "paid for" by Israel. Aside from the fact that this would funnel money into their death cult theocratic dictatorship (that would be bad), it would set a precedent for every other country across the world to do the same, which would be absolutely ruinous for the global economy.

-11

u/slimkay 23h ago

Except that Iran was the one who most recently attacked US bases and tankers unprovoked.

This is also completely ignoring Iran’s key role in bankrolling most of the bad actors in the Middle East (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis).

17

u/tarekd19 22h ago

Is assassinating the spiritual/political leader during negotiations not a provocation? Not to mention killing members of his heir and successors own family...

-3

u/StrikingYam7724 21h ago

This whole "we can help them shoot rockets out of the air but not blow up the launch sites" is such a bonkers take, no other country on the planet is expected to do that. I guarantee you if some terrorists in Tiajuana started launching rockets at San Diego and the Mexican government didn't stop them, we'd start blowing stuff up in Tiajuana. And we'd be right to do it.

14

u/MCRemix Make America ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Again 20h ago

Yes, but WE would be defending ourselves from an outside attacker in that case.

This is a war that Israel pushed for and refuses to de-escalate even when given the chance and WE are not Israel.

It's not our job to keep helping them fight an eternal war that Netanyahu wants to keep going so that he can avoid facing trial for his wrongdoings.

-3

u/StrikingYam7724 20h ago

Hezbollah started shooting at them as part of the 10/7 attack and the Lebanese government has yet to lift a single finger against them. That's causus belli no matter how much you hate Netanyahu.

5

u/MCRemix Make America ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Again 19h ago

That's not our problem.

They need to stop shooting or this war will never end, which IS our problem.

I'm not defending either Hezbollah or Lebanon, but the current war cannot just keep going forever.

-1

u/StrikingYam7724 15h ago

It won't now that Iran's too busy to rearm Hezbollah. Which is why they're throwing such a shit fit about it.

3

u/Hour-Mud4227 18h ago

It’s not bonkers—it’s a way of aiding an ally so that you address a legitimate defensive concern of theirs (which Israel has) but distance yourself from that ally’s bad habit of offensive military overreach. (Which Israel also has)

I wish we could do the same with the Saudis, who aren’t acting much better than Israel in terms of what’s going on in Yemen, but the realities of the petrodollar unfortunately don’t make it possible. With Israel we have a choice, as they’re not a key socioeconomic dependency.

0

u/StrikingYam7724 15h ago

If the defensive concern is legitimate then the strikes to remove the source of the rockets are legitimate. That's how war works for everyone else except Israel. They're the only ones expected to just shoot the rockets out of the air in perpetuity without doing anything about the launchers, and literally no one else would even try.

3

u/Hour-Mud4227 7h ago

I don’t disagree they have a right to take out the rocket sites but they have to be more precise in doing so—more generally, Israel has shown a manifest lack of restraint in the broader counteroffensive, and this isn’t the first time. When you are the stronger, more developed power you have the burden of restraint, like it or not, and when you ignore it, it looks a lot like genocide, even if the motives aren’t genocidal. (I disagree with most Israel critics in that I don’t believe they are).

If a band of narcoterrorists bomb a building in El Paso, the U.S. has the right to respond and try to take out the offending slice of the cartel, but if the response is to carpet bomb the whole of Chihuahua into oblivion, it’s overreach, even if it achieves the U.S.’s military goal in the end.

u/KentuckyFriedChingon Militant Centrist 3h ago

Thank you, exactly. Israel has not limited itself to only taking out rocket sites unless "Rocket Site" is the name of numerous Gazan schools and hospitals that have been reduced to rubble. 

45

u/Xakire 1d ago

It doesn’t really matter what the U.S. is or is not saying to Israel. The Israelis have been shown time and time again that they can do whatever they want with no consequences from the U.S. It doesn’t matter how privately frustrated American officials or even presidents may supposedly be from time to time, they never do anything.

24

u/throwforthefences 1d ago

Yep, the moment the US even begins floating the idea of doing something to coerce Israel into following our lead (like suspending military aid to them), the accusations of anti-semitism will start flying.

11

u/Wonderful_Cookie_572 1d ago

Although those accusations are becoming less and less effective. I could see a not-too-distant future where that accusation gets met with a "thank you" instead of a denial. Because you can only use that accusation to defend horrendous actions for so long before it becomes viewed as a positive label.

12

u/whatisthisshit7 1d ago

People already are being called antisemitic for criticizing American politicians, including Dems like Schumer, marching side by side with “Greater Israel” extremists like Smotrich this past weekend in NYC.

I don’t think there will even be meaningful pressure within Congress to change our position with Israel, unless Trump very dramatically and publicly switches on them and the rest of the Republican Party follows. But even then, if there is anyone outside of Trump that Republicans have been vocally loyal to, it’s Israel and its supporters.

7

u/Wonderful_Cookie_572 1d ago

Yup. Which is why I think it's more and more likely that 2028 will see the rise of openly anti-Israel candidates. And the longer this war goes the more likely they are to win.