r/moderatepolitics Federal worker fired without due process 1d ago

News Article Iran stops negotiations with U.S., vows to 'completely' block Strait of Hormuz: State media

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/01/iran-us-negotiations-strait-of-hormuz.html

The article says Iran announced Monday it will cut off all negotiations with the U.S. and move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, citing Israeli military operations in Lebanon as ceasefire violations. Tehran also threatened to activate the Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Oil prices jumped over 7 percent on the news.

The breakdown comes just days after Trump convened a Situation Room meeting to decide on a deal but left without making a decision. Trump posted on May 23 that a peace deal was "largely negotiated" and "Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly." Both sides launched new attacks in the following days, and Israel escalated in Lebanon with Netanyahu ordering strikes on Hezbollah-controlled Beirut suburbs. Iran's foreign minister said the ceasefire applies to all fronts including Lebanon, and violations on one front constitute violations on all.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively choked off since the war began on February 28, with ship traffic far below the prewar level of 100+ vessels per day. About a fifth of global oil supplies passed through the strait before the conflict. Gas prices had come down some in recent weeks on deal optimism, but that appears to be evaporating. There are also concerns Iran could impose a tolling system on ships transiting the strait.

Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran "really wants to make a deal" and told critics to "just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end. It always does!"

If Iran really wants to make a deal why are they walking away form negotiations? If the US is winning this war, why are we suing for peace?

The answer is because Iran's strategy is working. Our president and the "secretary of war" who was confirmed by one vote are not reliable sources of information.

They have been preparing for this war for decades and they know how to win it. Choking off a fifth of global oil supply has driven U.S. gas prices up 50%, cratered Trump's approval ratings, and Republicans are openly panicking about the midterms. They know the situation trump has created is FUBAR and they know they're cooked in november. Iran doesn't need to win on the battlefield. They just need to hold out and make the economic pain unsustainable until the administration comes to terms.

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u/Sunflorahh 1d ago

I saw a reel the other day from David Frum (Dubya's speechwriter). He said simply, the presidency is too big a job for Trump.

Just what a disaster this admin has been. Domestic policy, foreign policy, everything in between. The only constituency he cares about is the wealthy.

I don't know how supporters continue to justify and support his actions. Genuinely, I want to know their rationale. Are the wrinkles in their brain that different from mine?

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u/HavingNuclear 1d ago

Indeed it remains to be seen whether or not voters learn a lesson from this. More importantly, whether or not they apply that lesson to the circumstances of the next several elections. We've done a pretty terrible job at learning and applying lessons so far.

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u/MrNature72 1d ago

For the first time in basically forever, more people are registered independent than either party. It's roughly 45% independent, and 27.5% Republican and the same for Democrats.

Voters are more mercenary than ever, especially younger voters, and especially younger men on top of that.

While his hardcore base won't likely budge, I highly doubt he retains the gains he made with young men and minorities. As I mentioned before, those groups are highly mercenary, which IMHO is a good thing. Biden lost them to Trump due to the economy and border, Trump will likely lose them again due to his economy and war, perhaps even worse.

I've seen both sides now fall into the trap that they're secure in their standing or have some kind of mandate just because they won handily. I saw it with Obama, when Democrats believed and started the whole "demographics is destiny" schtick, just to get trounced by Donald Trump of all people 8 years later, and I wholeheartedly believe I'm seeing the exact same thing with Trump playing kingmaker within the GoP like he's the Caesar of a new immortal empire. Funny enough, both times they won so handily because a populist outsider shook things up and stole the camera wherever they want.

The big difference this time around though, is that while Democrats practically begged Obama to become a new figurehead (he's distanced himself fairly well, still involved but absolutely not trying to control the Dem party), Trump has essentially taken the throne of the GoP and thrown out anyone who didn't support him, without any care for competence or capability. Loyalty is all that mattered.

Frankly, I think that's gonna hurt the GoP way worse after he's gone than not having Obama as the figurehead of the Dems hurt the Dems. As long as he's kingmaker, it's gonna splinter the party and prevent any actual growth, progression or adaptation.

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u/Wonderful_Cookie_572 1d ago

This is why the 2028 primary is going to be such a knock-down drag-out on the Republican side. Those right-leaning under-50 independents are going to be fighting tooth and nail to overthrow the MIGA Boomers and put a true America-first candidate up in the general. It's going to be ugly. And if they lose, if the next candidate is a MIGA neocon, then expect those people to just stay home on election day and the Republicans to get trounced in the general.