r/leinsterrugby • u/OriginalRelease2582 • 10d ago
Coaching Set Up/Reality
A lot of reactionary stuff being stated repeatedly in the last couple of days in relation to the coaches and what Leinster should now do without delay. A lot of it focussed on who they should bring in, who they should get rid of, who they used to have and why these players can’t deliver with Leinster when they have done elsewhere.
Before I get into the below, I think Cullen’s time is done. He probably should have moved further upstairs at the end of the 2023 season when Lancaster moved on. It was a natural break. The JN signing hasn’t really worked out. It hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster despite some being eager to paint that picture but it hasn’t delivered what he is ultimately judged on which is the European title.
Regardless, some of the wants/repeated demands from fans on here and elsewhere over the last 2 days are just based on reactionary guff and pointless. I realise a lot of people don't want to listen to it at this point and just want to vent but I think some aspects need to be highlighted because it's becoming silly.
Sack the coaches.
The current coaches have contracts in place until the RWC. Calls for them to be removed are pointless. It’s not happening. They would need to be paid out. They also, I assume, have the standard 6-month notice period clause in there so they could not be moved on (or at least would have to be fully paid) for the remainder of 2026. It’s not realistic. Nor I suspect, would the IRFU/Farrell want Leinster looking to the market now and significant upheaval in Leinster 1 year out from the RWC.
But what if they did get rid?
Then there’s money made available that certainly wasn’t known about previously given the cuts that are happening in all provinces in terms of squad size and even redundancies in Munster. It would be a bad look, and I can’t see it being hugely well received by some within the game for that reason. But who can they get in? Firstly, pre-season for next year starts in 8 weeks approximately. There are coaches available but the vast majority of anyone worth engaging with is already spoken for. I’ve seen Scott Robertson’s name thrown out. He is, to my knowledge, available next season. But he has also signed on this summer to coach the Barbarians so wouldn’t be available until August probably at the earliest. Joe Schmidt is potentially the other guy who could be available that has a serious track record. He’s not getting any younger however and has been clear about the struggle of balancing family commitments. It’s a pretty small market and potentially non-existent at short notice for the quality of coach Leinster would ideally want.
Why didn’t they just get Lancaster?
Leinster have a problem of getting over the line. Lancaster has a brilliant track record of attention to detail and development. He has a very poor track record of getting over the line. He had 7 years at Leinster. Go back and look at each of those seasons. I think that Leinster had three exceptional chances at landing the European title since their last one: 2020, 2023 and 2025. Regardless of reaching finals, those are the years where everything was aligned for them, and handy draws had them in a strong place as well as the locations of the finals/knock out games. In two of those, Lancaster was the senior coach overseeing the team. In 2020, they were top seed and lost in a home QF to a Saracens team that was extremely vulnerable having been told they were relegated. Saracens lost to Munster and Racing in the pools and Leinster were big favourites in Dublin. Saracens took Leinster apart. It was 22-3 at halftime before Leinster woke up but were always at arm’s length. Then the home final against La Rochelle where they collapsed after being top seeds all throughout the knock outs. They also lost their two home URC semi-finals in 2022 and 2023 after the bigger SA teams joined. Leinster had a deeper and stronger squad during those years with massive experience and test players in behind the starters so were very well set up for the URC but still had mental collapses in those knock outs. So, whilst the time under Lancaster was great, there’s absolutely zero evidence that Leinster would have been any more successful with him in place. He oversaw the 2018 win but take a look at the opposition. Racing were down to their third choice outhalf on the day with Carter pulling out that week and Lambie getting injured in the 3rd minute. And Racing still nearly won with Leinster looking extremely nervous on the day.
Why have these guys been performing with Ireland but not Leinster?
Have they? Ireland lost to France in near identical circumstances in February. Ireland handed France repeated opportunities early on and they game was dead by halftime at 22-0 and 29-0 straight after the break. They started brightly against a patchy NZ in November and fell away badly then too. I’ll give them a pass for the South Africa game as there was a gulf due to the set piece and the mad number of cards…..but there’s absolutely a pattern of similar performances in the last couple of years and being blitzed by the teams who can stand up to Ireland. Maybe we’re not as good as we like to make out?
I’m not sure where Leinster go from here. I do think the team might now be at the end of the road. They aren’t going to make big changes this side of the RWC either on or off the field but I also reckon Europe isn’t an option at all for next season in terms of winning. The final is in France and Leinster are highly unlikely to win there. We’re in the golden age of French rugby and it’s going to be difficult to compete with them since they’ve managed to get their house in order in recent seasons. The most likely situation is they take next year to regroup and work on pushing through some younger players with an eye to a much more buoyant coaching market after the 2027 RWC
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u/Oatbix 10d ago
I agree I think Leo’s time is coming to an end, and I think that’s a good thing, but yeah they don’t do anything reactionary.
Also to be honest it’s a little bit be careful what you wish for. One thing Leo has brought is incredible stability. You’re not owed anything in sport and Leinster fans have gotten used to being one of the best teams in Europe every year. It only takes a few decisions to be back into mediocrity.
The Top 14 is a beast of its own and will continue to separate from the rest of the pack. With the money and hype it’s just so far ahead of the other leagues. I think it will become (maybe already is) like the premier league in football where it’s just levels ahead of the rest.
The IRFU have also made it clear with recent decisions that they don’t want a super club in Ireland. That’s good for Ireland so I’m actually not complaining, but for Leinster it definitely affects their ability to compete against the top French teams.
The future is extremely uncertain. I do think we need a change, but I am also a bit anxious about what that could bring. It’s not an easy environment right now