r/leinsterrugby • u/OriginalRelease2582 • 9d ago
Coaching Set Up/Reality
A lot of reactionary stuff being stated repeatedly in the last couple of days in relation to the coaches and what Leinster should now do without delay. A lot of it focussed on who they should bring in, who they should get rid of, who they used to have and why these players can’t deliver with Leinster when they have done elsewhere.
Before I get into the below, I think Cullen’s time is done. He probably should have moved further upstairs at the end of the 2023 season when Lancaster moved on. It was a natural break. The JN signing hasn’t really worked out. It hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster despite some being eager to paint that picture but it hasn’t delivered what he is ultimately judged on which is the European title.
Regardless, some of the wants/repeated demands from fans on here and elsewhere over the last 2 days are just based on reactionary guff and pointless. I realise a lot of people don't want to listen to it at this point and just want to vent but I think some aspects need to be highlighted because it's becoming silly.
Sack the coaches.
The current coaches have contracts in place until the RWC. Calls for them to be removed are pointless. It’s not happening. They would need to be paid out. They also, I assume, have the standard 6-month notice period clause in there so they could not be moved on (or at least would have to be fully paid) for the remainder of 2026. It’s not realistic. Nor I suspect, would the IRFU/Farrell want Leinster looking to the market now and significant upheaval in Leinster 1 year out from the RWC.
But what if they did get rid?
Then there’s money made available that certainly wasn’t known about previously given the cuts that are happening in all provinces in terms of squad size and even redundancies in Munster. It would be a bad look, and I can’t see it being hugely well received by some within the game for that reason. But who can they get in? Firstly, pre-season for next year starts in 8 weeks approximately. There are coaches available but the vast majority of anyone worth engaging with is already spoken for. I’ve seen Scott Robertson’s name thrown out. He is, to my knowledge, available next season. But he has also signed on this summer to coach the Barbarians so wouldn’t be available until August probably at the earliest. Joe Schmidt is potentially the other guy who could be available that has a serious track record. He’s not getting any younger however and has been clear about the struggle of balancing family commitments. It’s a pretty small market and potentially non-existent at short notice for the quality of coach Leinster would ideally want.
Why didn’t they just get Lancaster?
Leinster have a problem of getting over the line. Lancaster has a brilliant track record of attention to detail and development. He has a very poor track record of getting over the line. He had 7 years at Leinster. Go back and look at each of those seasons. I think that Leinster had three exceptional chances at landing the European title since their last one: 2020, 2023 and 2025. Regardless of reaching finals, those are the years where everything was aligned for them, and handy draws had them in a strong place as well as the locations of the finals/knock out games. In two of those, Lancaster was the senior coach overseeing the team. In 2020, they were top seed and lost in a home QF to a Saracens team that was extremely vulnerable having been told they were relegated. Saracens lost to Munster and Racing in the pools and Leinster were big favourites in Dublin. Saracens took Leinster apart. It was 22-3 at halftime before Leinster woke up but were always at arm’s length. Then the home final against La Rochelle where they collapsed after being top seeds all throughout the knock outs. They also lost their two home URC semi-finals in 2022 and 2023 after the bigger SA teams joined. Leinster had a deeper and stronger squad during those years with massive experience and test players in behind the starters so were very well set up for the URC but still had mental collapses in those knock outs. So, whilst the time under Lancaster was great, there’s absolutely zero evidence that Leinster would have been any more successful with him in place. He oversaw the 2018 win but take a look at the opposition. Racing were down to their third choice outhalf on the day with Carter pulling out that week and Lambie getting injured in the 3rd minute. And Racing still nearly won with Leinster looking extremely nervous on the day.
Why have these guys been performing with Ireland but not Leinster?
Have they? Ireland lost to France in near identical circumstances in February. Ireland handed France repeated opportunities early on and they game was dead by halftime at 22-0 and 29-0 straight after the break. They started brightly against a patchy NZ in November and fell away badly then too. I’ll give them a pass for the South Africa game as there was a gulf due to the set piece and the mad number of cards…..but there’s absolutely a pattern of similar performances in the last couple of years and being blitzed by the teams who can stand up to Ireland. Maybe we’re not as good as we like to make out?
I’m not sure where Leinster go from here. I do think the team might now be at the end of the road. They aren’t going to make big changes this side of the RWC either on or off the field but I also reckon Europe isn’t an option at all for next season in terms of winning. The final is in France and Leinster are highly unlikely to win there. We’re in the golden age of French rugby and it’s going to be difficult to compete with them since they’ve managed to get their house in order in recent seasons. The most likely situation is they take next year to regroup and work on pushing through some younger players with an eye to a much more buoyant coaching market after the 2027 RWC
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u/Mean-Wolf936 9d ago edited 9d ago
I agree with a lot of what you said, particularly around the mental fragility being a theme under Lancaster as well, but I don’t know how the Nienabar appointment could be described as anything other than an unmitigated disaster.
Leaving aside the CC, it’s our deterioration as a team in performance that is the real concern. Our style of play and moving away from our identity, our lack of game plan, a defense that’s ineffective against good teams, a B team that struggles against bottom half URC teams that they used to smoke, all points to our regression. There’s a player issue there, but it’s mainly on the coaches. This year we were embarrassed in South Africa, embarrassed against Munster, easily could have lost to Dragons, labored against the Harlequins B team, had to bring on the lions to get past Ulster in the Aviva, should have lost to La Rochelle, gave one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen in Cardiff, were bossed in Treviso. I won’t even bother with the CC run-in and there’s probably other poor performances I’m missing.
You bring up the Ireland point, but many would put the worrying national performances down in large part to Leinster’s form. Irelands turn around in the 6N under Farrell when he had them in camp for a few weeks was telling.
I absolutely concede that the current coaching ticket likely stays in place with the market being as it is this close to a WC, but I’m less concerned by a potential bad look if the situation arose where the IRFU had to dip into the cash reserves to pay off Nienabar, an appointment that should never have happened and that they sanctioned. Especially, in the context of Munster’s financial situation, them paying off multiple coaches, money likely paid to Randle, money paid on unnecessary reviews, stadium white elephants, etc., etc.
Next season should be a season to regroup as you say, but if there was a possibility of regrouping under Joe or similar on a short term basis to work with Leo and the others before major changes in 2027, then paying off the remainder of Nienabar’s contract and coming to an arrangement with SA would be money well spent at this point.
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u/PeteIRL 9d ago
The Nienaber defense system has been proven to be a complete busted flush. It works for South Africa, but I'd bet my gaff on that being more down to Rassie ultimately calling the shots and not Nienaber being some defensive genius. When it works, it's great. But South Africa won each of their RWC 2023 knock-out games by single points. A ball-bounce could have resulted in a different outcome. South Africa being a team of physical and mental freaks probably helps. But I think they succeeded in spite of Nienaber's defense. Not because of it. Nienaber's been found out. And Leinster are suffering for it.
I also think Bleyendaal and O'Brien are stealing salaries. Our attack has been completely non-existant the entire season, and when it does look like we're capable of stringing something together, I think that's down to the inherent talent of the players rather than Bleyendaal's systems clicking. Our skills, handling are a joke. Absolutely loved Sean O'Brien as a player. One of my all-time favourites, but what the hell is he doing as a coach? Completely unproven, and that's showing.
I don't think this coaching ticket will change at the end of the season. Too close to the RWC and they've one year left on their contracts. So I think it'll be a long 2026-2027 season.
As for Leo. His remit is to produce players for Ireland, and he has done that. I would hate to see him leave Leinster all together. He is Mr. Leinster. But I don't think he should be calling any of the shots in terms of coaching or selection. Not sure what role that leaves him with, but that's not up to me. Regardless, things need to change.
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u/Comfortable-Yam9013 9d ago
Why did we sign Nienaber in the first place? Why sign someone whose style is the complete opposite to how we like to play. And stop trying to copy/compete with the Saffers. We’re not built the same as them
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u/PeteIRL 9d ago
Nienaber's CV at that point was "Double RWC winning coach." That is unimpeachable. I'm no rugby coach, so I dunno what goes on in terms of analysing players and their profiles and ability to execute certain plans. Maybe they thought with some time the team could adapt. But I'm not sure anyone really questioned the style as it seemingly worked for South Africa. There was no evidence for it working before them. But there's plenty of evidence that it doesn't work now.
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u/kevinthebaconator 9d ago
I think it was because he was a serial world cup winner.
Leinster did everything right but win silverware. I can see the logic in the guy with two World Cup wins being the man to change that
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u/maxtaney 9d ago
I think it was in response to the idea that Leinster weren't winning trophies with their current setup and players, so let's get in a double world cup winning coach for the last piece of the puzzle.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Sorry but I think it is so disingenuous to all the coaches at academies, club levels and schools at every single age grade working their assess off how many days a year, to credit all those players being produced to Leo Cullen?
Seriously, you have to be some sort of weird Cullen fanboy/stan to try credit him for “producing players”. He literally just gets the finished product, and from 2016-2023 we know Lancaster and Andy Farrell put the finishing touches on these players to turn them into world class players.
I would say Cullen has less than 1% to do with these players being produced
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u/PeteIRL 9d ago
The remit of all the head coaches in the provinces is to produce players for Ireland. Everything is geared towards that. The head coaches of the provinces have access to the Ireland players on a day-to-day basis. They are the heads of the teams and the players go through them. I wasn't suggesting Leo Cullen goes to all the schools and clubs in Leinster and personally coaches every single player.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
You basically just said a whole lot of nothing there. You are literally not suggesting any reason to why other people could not have done the role Cullen has done for 11 years.
If your job of the head coach of a province is to produce players, than being the head coach of Leinster with the best schools and academy system in the world must make it the easiest job in the world.
Also the way young players progressed under Lancaster in 2016-2023, compared to how those have come through post 2023 have progressed is alarming.
Also his first year at Connacht he’s already massively brought on Bohan, Illo, Jennings, Murray, Forde etc.
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u/No_Reference_4303 9d ago
Am i alone in thinking the squad profile in terms of mentality are all similar. Listen to any of them talk. Doris,Conan van der flier, sheehan etc. They all speak the same, think the same. When leinster were actually successful, the profile of players was different. You had a much different profile in my opinion. Shane jennings, O brien, Mclaughlin, Sexton, Nacewa etc. I just feel there was a good mix of characters there. They were not happy to lose or take part. Winners basically. Looking at Conan being interviewed before the game and trying his best to be uber cool and calm. No edge at all. Almost the equivalent of Linkedin Lunatics
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
Almost like they've been endlessly media coached to say nothing because anything that's said gets thrown back in their face by the press and World Rugby.
For example the only player to ever say what everyone knows and call out us being endlessly screwed into the ground in finals by referees got banned for it and lambasted across the world.
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u/No_Reference_4303 9d ago
Its not my point exactly. It not about balling out officials. Its an actual metality in the group where they challenge easch other. THis group to me is Vanilla.
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
Which is based on what comes out publicly. As I say the players have been coached to say nothing because they get crapped on when they do.
As another example Joe McCarthy just said a basic fact that the rest of the world hates us, and it got blown up into this massive issue with a load of criticism when one look at anything written across the world just shows it's true
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u/No_Reference_4303 9d ago
I think you are missing my point. I am talking about how they are in general. To me this group is just meh. Nothing in them that I relate to as a supporter. Where is the edge about them.
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
I get your point, I just think it's founded on what we get from media interviews etc. Which as I've said is deliberately watered down crap because if they ever say anything interesting it gets turned against them.
Porter and Ryan for example have more than enough edge. So much so that they get abuse from every other team (e.g. Porter's pregnant wife being attacked online)
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago edited 9d ago
Well first, of all you need to balance off the pros and benefits off making a decision to relieve Cullen and Nienaber a year early.
There is absolutely no doubt Leinster attendances have dropped a lot this year. The numbers show that, and apparently the Lions game this weekend is going to extremely extremely low and could almost be an embarrassment for the organisation with how many people turn up to Aviva this weekend for a QF. I also read Leinster need to pull around 21,000 fans at Aviva just to break even. So anything well below this they are making a financial loss.
Most Leinster fans online and those I speak to say they are becoming fed up with the coaching ticket and style of play. That is a fact. If this coaching ticket stays on next year, attendances will continue to fall. Apart from the hype of the first month of being back in the RDS, attendances will soon fall very flat. I reckon the December/January game at the Aviva unless it’s a huge French side, will barely pull 20,000, maybe not even 15,000 given how fatigued people are of this same process in Europe for the last 7 years with nothing to show for it at end.
If say Joe Schmidt, who apparently still spends a lot of time in Dublin and has family living here while knowing how loved he is in Ireland, came back, IMO it is not an exaggeration to say you would be looking at a huge swing in attendances in what Leinster would pull with Schmidt vs Cullen. It’s not controversial to say that, Joe Schmidt is a huge name in Irish rugby, people would turn up to watch Leinster if they knew Schmidt was back at the helm.
It’s important you weigh up the drop in attendances that is currently happening when deciding to keep on Cullen and Nienaber. That’s all I am saying.
Any organisation would weigh up these pros vs cons when making a decision like this. But you are right only if we do not win the URC this year I think media pressure and fan disengagement will force the Leinster board into a serious serious review.
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u/IrishLad1002 9d ago edited 9d ago
My mates and I have been at every Leinster knockout game bar last weeks final for the past two seasons and we’re not going this Saturday after that disgrace of a performance last weekend. I can’t get behind a team coached by Cullen anymore that has been out coached in every big game for the last 7 years. They’ll beat down the average Lions like usual this weekend but once they meet a team that matches us in quality, we look lost.
I hope this weekends attendance is an embarrassment for the organization.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
I think the younger generation of Leinster fans, in their 20s or early 30s are fed up. And when your younger generation of fans are losing interest when rugby is already massively competing with GAA and soccer in Ireland, is massively worrying for Leinster going forward.
It’s mainly a minority of the older, nostalgic ones that are massive Cullen fanboys for what he did in his playing career that do not want a change.
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u/Oatbix 9d ago
I agree I think Leo’s time is coming to an end, and I think that’s a good thing, but yeah they don’t do anything reactionary.
Also to be honest it’s a little bit be careful what you wish for. One thing Leo has brought is incredible stability. You’re not owed anything in sport and Leinster fans have gotten used to being one of the best teams in Europe every year. It only takes a few decisions to be back into mediocrity.
The Top 14 is a beast of its own and will continue to separate from the rest of the pack. With the money and hype it’s just so far ahead of the other leagues. I think it will become (maybe already is) like the premier league in football where it’s just levels ahead of the rest.
The IRFU have also made it clear with recent decisions that they don’t want a super club in Ireland. That’s good for Ireland so I’m actually not complaining, but for Leinster it definitely affects their ability to compete against the top French teams.
The future is extremely uncertain. I do think we need a change, but I am also a bit anxious about what that could bring. It’s not an easy environment right now
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
I'd really challenge this hypothesis that it's good for Ireland.
Ireland's best ever performance coincided with Leinster being at the top table. Deliberately making Leinster worse to make the other provinces look better is not beneficial to Ireland.
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u/Oatbix 9d ago
Depends how it all shakes out. Like having 4 Irish teams competing to win the URC is better than 2 being write offs and Leinster getting to the champions cup final every year. I think rugby has just changed in the last few years, we can’t just make assumptions on what worked in the past
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u/SquarePhilosopher108 9d ago
Exactly, it can all turn to absolute sxxt really quickly, just look at the Wales and munster...... Leinster fans have been extremely privileged with their team for over 15 years with an astonishing levels of success for team country and lion's. Unfortunately ...moments...., of indecision,outrageous bad luck,and being physically dominated by freakish opponents has contributed to many unfortunate defeats at the highest level, and at lot of these things you cannot possibly coach against..
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u/Oatbix 9d ago
I don’t think it’ll get as extreme as those downfalls, but Leinster fans 100% take our position in rugby for granted these days because we’re so used to the good times. Like people not wanting to go to a home semi against Toulon because they weren’t confident we’d win a final, like none of these days out are owed to anyone. You need to enjoy it while you can
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Everyone goes on about how Cullen has brought stability, but in all seriousness how would you know unless you see the work that goes on behind the scenes each day.
The reality is, in 2016 he realised he was out of his depth as head coach, which Sexton pretty much also indirectly said in his autobiography, and he saw an opportunity to call Stuart Lancaster to come in and coach the team for him, while being able to retain his “head coach” title and be able to make final calls on selections.
Hes made a huge amount of costly errors the last few years, the 2023 URC semi final selection, the Jordie Barrett Call, how Frawley’s career has gone, the decision to hire Nienaber even though he was clearly contrary to Leinster traditional dna, the decision to sign Ioane when everyone knew before he was on a downward curve
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u/Oatbix 9d ago
If nothing else he’s brought stability. Without looking it up is it 20 champion cup group games we’ve won in a row? And been in at least the semi for 7 or 8 years?
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Yes, and we have won 0 of those champions cups which is the only thing people remember.
I probably credit Stuart Lancaster a lot more than Cullen
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u/IrishLad1002 9d ago
I’m pretty sure any professional coach would be able to do what Cullen has done with the tools at his disposal. It doesn’t take a good coach to beat a bunch of average club teams who might have 3 or 4 internationals max when 22/23 players in your matchday squad are multi capped test internationals. That’s not stability.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago edited 9d ago
And that’s what is going to make it even more frustrating for Sheehan, Doris and co if they retire in a few years with 0 European cup medals. That they never had a top class head coach and were stuck with Cullen for their prime years at Leinster
I expect we’ll hear about in their autobiographies how they wish they spoke up more for a change in this period.
IMO our window has completely gone. Most of our best players have reached their end date, the next generation is not as good, and the French sides are unbelievable. Also the English teams are getting better again as the salary cap expands more in their league.
I think the next few years we’ll be in for a tough one
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u/IrishLad1002 9d ago
While I don’t know if Lancaster would’ve brought us more Champions Cups as some have rightfully pointed out we had a habit of bottling big moments under him too, I’m certain the biggest loss from losing Lancaster has been the development of players. The likes of Sheehan, Ringrose, Ryan, JVDF, etc wouldn’t have been as good as they are if they didn’t develop early under Lancaster. The next generation as you’ve pointed out doesn’t seem to have these star players.
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
From an IRFU perspective, Ireland's most successful period in history by a distance coincided with Lancaster coaching Leinster players year round to excel in an attacking gameplan and basic skills that actually suited them. They fucked him over with mediocre signings that were never good enough.
Give Lancaster Snyman, Slimani and Barrett instead of Jenkins, the never fit Ngatai and the scrummaging joke that was Ala'alatoa and you're telling me he doesn't get over the line?
The fact is we're now miles behind the way the game is being played where we were previously in prime position to exploit it. The blitz defence doesn't suit the players and the skills of players has deteriorated massively.
If the IRFU and Farrell actually want Ireland to do anything at the world cup they have to act NOW. There was enough money to pay off Randle, Rowntree and McFarland. So don't tell me there isn't enough for the only province that's actually bringing in fans every week.
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u/MosmanWhale 9d ago
Ngatai was a brilliant signing. Always a stand out player on the pitch when he played. Got a calf injury against Ulster. He played the semi against Toulouse in 23 and totally dominated the mid field. Came on for Henshaw in the final and was immense. One of our better signings in my opinion.
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
Compared to Barrett? That's the direct competition and he was nowhere near the same standard.
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u/Middle_Fly_9446 9d ago
You are being disingenuous, Ngatai was not a superstar signing like Barrett or Ioane. He was a very solid signing who always performed well, I'd say he was half the money of Ioane and twice the player for Leinster.
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
I didn't compare him to Ioane though did I?
We win Europe under Lancaster if he got the same backing as Nienaber. That's my point.
Somehow you've just ignored Snyman and Slimani to go down a rabbit hole about Ngatai, who, no matter what is claimed, was half the player Barrett is at best
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u/MosmanWhale 9d ago
Barrett came after ngatai. Ngatai had to leave as he was not Irish qualified. Definitely a step or two up on Ricko
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago edited 9d ago
You don't understand the point at all do you?
Lancaster never got the same backing as Nienaber.
Nienaber got Slimani, Snyman and Barrett.
Lancaster got Ala'alatoa, Jenkins and Ngatai.
Which group do you think is better? Do you think Lancaster wins with the players Nienaber got?
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Charlie Ngatai was an outstanding signing for Leinster.
He was excellent in the 2023 semi final vs Toulouse, and in the 2023 final he came on and got a massive jackal and you’ll also remember that massive carry that brought us right up to the line in the final minutes vs La Rochelle and the players somehow bottled it and didn’t score
He has also had some good URC matches. He cost probably half of what Ioane cost, and offered way more. Poor take that one
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
And the other 2 comparisons?
As for Ngatai, on the back of not even playing 80 minutes across 2 games you want to compare him to Jordie who was our best player by a mile?
Put it this way, if Jordie played instead of Ngatai we would have won Europe.
Add Snyman and Slimani instead of Jenkins and Ala'alatoa to that and the hacking Lancaster got compared to Nienaber is night and day
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u/MosmanWhale 9d ago
They were never here at the same time. Ngatai was one of our best signings. No matter what you say about him being poor. You are wrong. Not going to allow you to shit on his reputation as he was always a top performer for Leinster.
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u/IrishLad1002 9d ago edited 9d ago
I’d be seriously pissed off if I was a the likes of Ringrose, Doris, Sheehan, Keenan, Ryan, JVDF , etc to have had my career pissed away by working under Cullen. It doesn’t matter what it takes he cannot be allowed to coach Leinster again next season as it will just be another carbon copy of this one and last one and the one before that etc, we’ll win 90% of games during the year and make at least a champions cup semi because we’re a test team beating a bunch of club teams but as soon as we meet a Bordeaux, Toulouse, Northampton in the later rounds of the champions cup who match us in individual quality Cullen and his crews awful coaching, strategy and structures will be exposed once again. No serious team in any professional sport would not only accept the failures of a coach like Cullen but allow him to go again.
Cullen would’ve been sacked long ago if he was coaching an English or French team that had 22 test internationals in their matchday 23 and got as little trophy return as he has with Leinster. Irish people are too happy to accept failure and “moral victories”.
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u/JBLookalike 9d ago
Whilst I don't disagree, the coaches are contracted until the end of next season supposedly. They're not going to get paid out.
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u/OriginalRelease2582 9d ago
And even then, they would have the 6 month notice period. They could happily say they're staying where they are until the end of the year and nobody can do a thing about it.
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u/willywonkaschoc 9d ago
They’d just be paid off, every job has notice periods and they all have break clauses, so that is absolutely not an issue. The main issue is the IRFU/Leinster won’t want to throw money away by paying them off, when, as others have said, they are ticking the boxes, producing playing for Ireland and consistently getting home knock out game revenue.
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u/IrishLad1002 9d ago
Bad management to give them contracts like that. The money could be found if there was a will from management. Killing the NIQ signings for a year will help free up some cash. No point in giving expensive tools to someone incapable of using them.
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
The money could be found if it was one of the other provinces. Proof? It has been very recently for both Munster and Ulster.
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u/IrishLad1002 9d ago
I didn’t say anything about the other provinces. It could be found in house, if there was a will for coaching change from Leinster management.
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u/SquarePhilosopher108 9d ago
Are you for real, Sheehan had an absolute mare on Saturday, the blown line out on UBB 5m and the line out shambles had nothing to do with coaching, like wise Keenans first touch knock on cannot be blamed on anyone but the player. Doris,Ryan and Josh were under ferocious pressure all day, in crazy heat, in an extreme atmosphere and got nothing from the referee or lady luck........ they never stopped playing
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u/Zealousideal-Mud-381 9d ago
Given Munster are able to terminate and pay off in contract coaches that haven’t even set foot in Ireland yet, surely we would be able to terminate coaches before their contract ends?
Rowntree and McFarland were both terminated early from what I remember.
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u/OriginalRelease2582 9d ago
They were. But incredibly different circumstances. Firstly, they were terminated two years ago which can be a long time in budgets.
In both situations, the teams were collapsing on the field. With the greatest of respect to anyone thinking Leinster are now comparable to that, they're not. They've lost a European final and are in the URC knock outs. The IRFU are probably pretty happy, to be honest. A couple more home knock outs ahead of them too, potentially. You'll hear no complaints out of those who make the decisions.
Munster had lost 4 of their last 5 including Zebre putting 40 on them. Allegedly Rowntree was on the lash on tour and it was no secret that he had fallen out badly with senior players.
McFarland was falling apart. He was extremely combative/aggressive in interviews, had supposedly fallen out with his players and called them cowards. They had been thumped in Europe with Quins hammering them. Ulster were going terribly. And they brought in a pretty cheap replacement option too. There were apparently major commercial issues behind the scenes in Ulster and the IRFU had to remove the CEO also.
Or Matt O'Connor publicly complaining about the Ireland selection hindering him whilst Leinster missed out on the Pro12 playoffs before he was let go.
I get people are upset but logic/evidence is going out the window for many. And it's not that I want the coaches retained, I want a fresh start. But it's not going to happen unless Leo Cullen turns around and says he'd like to walk away with immediate effect.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Again I would like attendances to come into factor here.
At the moment it is strictly looking at the cons of the decision financially. You are not considering the upside that can happen from an upswing in attendances with a brand new exciting coaching ticket.
This is obviously not something you can forecast, but this season attendances have dropped, and I think Leinster will be in for a rude awakening with how many will show up for Lions this weekend.
By the way I think to break even on the Aviva Leinster need to pull around 20,000 fans. So they are make big losses whenever they fall way off this
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u/OriginalRelease2582 9d ago
I think the attendance conversation is a very fair and sensible point and it's potentially costly if Leinster are struggling there which would offset things.
I think though, being perfectly blunt about it, it's not happening. They're not sacking him. It's just not happening for a multitude of reasons.
People don't want to hear it (and that's very clear in this thread) but I would be utterly flabbergasted if in the next 4 weeks, Leinster announced Cullen is leaving and they're bringing in someone else at short notice. It's not how things are done and never have been. And people shouldn't conflate me saying that with me wanting that.
Even if they did cut ties with Cullen immediately, potentially the most likely scenario (and people will love this!) is that JN takes over full control in the interim. Leinster cannot go into a pre-season without a head coach and people like Schmidt or Robertson aren't available until well into pre-season at best.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Do you not think a shocking attendance this weekend which I believe is in line to happen with how ticket sales are going, would not raise major alarm bells with how defranchised Leinster fans are becoming if Leinster’s online media/PR team have not already flagged this to those at the top.
Also I think Nienaber and Cullen as a package would have to be cut. But again what a genius decision it was of the Leinster board to give Cullen a 2 year instead of 1 year extension! By the way I highly doubt Cullen is getting many offers from elsewhere better than Leinster, so if he was offered a 1 year he would have took it.
Either way you cannot forecast what attendance would have been under Cullen vs a new coach next season. But if you make a change the attendance difference would easily clear up the financial implications of making a decision very quickly.
Like imagine a Joe Schmidt Leinster European cup game at Aviva at December vs Cullen and Nienaber Leinster. Honestly don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say you could see a 10-15 thousand difference between both those scenarios
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u/OriginalRelease2582 9d ago
I think it'll raise concerns absolutely. I don't think it's going to prompt a conversation around sacking anyone though.
Historically, the attendances for this game were poor anyway. In 2022, Leinster had only 9k attend the URC QF after losing to La Rochelle and then 11k the following week against the Bulls. In 2023, they moved it to the Aviva for an interpro semi final but only managed 26k. They'd have been hoping for 10-15k more than that when they moved that game, I'd imagine.
I think if the attendance is really appalling, it might prompt a discussion internally but it would need to be under 10k, I'd say. Still won't lead to someone being sacked though.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
Yes that is fair, I think maybe I was talking about more of a drop. I think the Scarlets and Glasgow knockout games last year still had some interest because we had never won the URC.
But now we have won it it’s hard to imagine anything but a further decline this year. I think if we lost to the Lions this weekend or lost the semi final at home, media pressure and fan disengagement could force them into a serious review and if there is a short-term or even long-term candidate out there they are happy with it could happen.
There is definitely some media pressure. The Times wrote today questioning Cullen and you also had guys like Lawrence Dallagio questioning why Leinster have not made a change at weekend. So it’s also kind of expanding outside Ireland these narratives.
Also Jackman wrote about it yesterday that a change needs to happen, and usually he is a Cullen defender. So that shows narrative is changing
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u/Recent-Cobbler1403 9d ago
I know several people who won't go to Leinster games anymore because the way they play is so boring
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u/Zealousideal-Mud-381 9d ago
Fair points. However, Leinsters attendance for the 3 knockout CC games - R16, QF and SF was 80,000 less this year than it was last year. I think you need to factor fans staying away due to being disenfranchised with the current coaching ticket and its impact on revenue into your analysis, particularly, as you say during a time of budget pressure.
Taking a conservative average ticket price of 50 quid a ticket, the attendance reduction for those three games alone cost Leinster/IRFU about €4,000,000.
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u/Automatic_Start6120 9d ago
That is exactly it. Those attendance declines are serious serious red flags for Leinster as a lot of their revenue comes from gate receipts.
It’s impossible to forecast attendances with Cullen vs a new head coach next season. But the facts are there has been a big decline this season.
If a new head coach led to an increase in attendances rather than a further decrease which could well happen next year, that would easily easily clear the financial implications of getting rid of this coaching ticket a year early.
Only a URC QF or semi final loss imo would make board consider a change. A final win or close final loss and I do not think anything will happen
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
Not to mention that the IRFU paid for Ulster and Munster to clean house. Why shouldn't they pay for us to do it?
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u/Some-Speed-6290 9d ago
The IRFU are probably pretty happy, to be honest
Which is the biggest problem of all. Humphreys is delighted because Leinster are getting worse and it distracts from the shit stain that is every decision he's made.
McFarland was falling apart. He was extremely combative/aggressive in interviews
Like say Leo calling out the press?
Or Matt O'Connor publicly complaining about the Ireland selection hindering him
Like say Nienaber saying the same thing?
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u/BackgroundGuide408 9d ago
Handling skills and creativity in attack have fallen off. Coaching for sure, but also in an awkward transition with Conan, JVF, Henshaw, & Ringrose on the back half of their careers. The best teams have more X Factor through these positions.
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u/Opposite_Way9590 8d ago
Coaches aren't going anywhere until the contracts are up. But next season is the last chance saloon. They need to sit down and completely change the strategy.
How we decided to move away from our attacking DNA, after we literally spent a couple of seasons developing an attack to cope with big teams, is mind-boggling.
I thought we would stay an attacking team, Nienabar would bring a more aggressive defense, focus on set pieces, and coach on decision-making in finals. Instead, he's brought us back 10 years.
Also important to mention, probably our worst final performances in our history have come in the last two years. Absolutely abysmal last year and this year.
I'm also frustrated at how slow we've been bringing through our young talent, it feels like all they're focused on each year is winning a Heineken Cup with this team.
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u/kmAye11 8d ago
Nienabar to me was always a strange appointment, to me he's always looked like Rassies assistant even when he was the head coach for the springboks in the last world cup I did think that was a move to get Rassie on the pitch as a water carrier. The springboks to me have looked even more dominant since he's moved.
To me that team has looked like its lacked leaders, something Johnny brought in spades, and O'Mahony with Ireland. Big Stu filled the role in the six nations being confrontational in every aspect. I don't see a current Leinster player with that attitude yet.
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u/buzybuzy 7d ago
Leinster are actually having an open day in Hall 1 of the RDS on July 4th at 10:15 am with the goal of finding a new coach.
There is a physical test requirement where potential applicants will need to carry their armchair for 110m in under 20 seconds. This requirement used to be just 100m, but 110% commitment is now required.
Sexton is excluded from consideration due to claims he carried the whole team!
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u/Alarmed_Importance45 9d ago edited 9d ago
The hidden cost of not sacking the coaches now is the falling ticket sales. It's not all due to Aviva-fatigue, and I think changing the coaches and the game-plan would improve attendance. Also keeping on coaches who are desperate to save their contracts are incentivized to make high risk, short term focused decisions to save their careers, it's really bad practice in any line of work.
"Nor I suspect, would the IRFU/Farrell want Leinster looking to the market now and significant upheaval in Leinster 1 year out from the RWC."
I think hiring a coach that wants to play exactly like Ireland do would make life significantly easier on the IRFU/Farrell. Even an interim coach.
"Why have these guys been performing with Ireland but not Leinster? Have they?"
Yes IMO. They've won 2 six nations titles and have become the number one ranked international team largely with the same group of players since their last CC.
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u/Roanokian 9d ago
I agree with everything you said.
I think there’s a point missing at the conclusion of your post that is the basis of both the frustration and the future.
And it’s distilled down to “what do we stand for”.
I know what Leinster used to stand for. We played shit hot rugby and looked cool as fuck and the team was replete with big characters who did not care what anyone thought of them.
It feels like now we stand for nothing and we’re defined by an objective (Europe) rather than it being the consequence. We also have no characters anymore. Leinster is safe and boring and we used to be the opposite of that.
Cheiks was cool. He was tough as nuts and he didn’t care what anyone thought. And the Leinster team of that era reflected that fearless flair and toughness. There are guys in the current squad who are pros for 10 years and I’ve barely heard them speak and certainly never heard them say anything interesting.
Anyway, good post. Hard agree.