r/lebanon • u/Residual-Heat • Apr 08 '26

Vent / Rant Everyone's a winner (except Lebanon)

Depending on who you ask everyone is a winner. Israel and USA say they won, Iran and Hezbollah will claim victory.

Lebanon is left with 1500+ dead civilians, nearly a million refugees, and occupied lands in the south.

132 Upvotes

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u/theStrategist37 Apr 08 '26

As a way to put pressure on Israel when there is trouble on another front without endangering Iran itself. Prime example is October 8th 2023. Iran could've gotten involved themselves, but chose not to, less risk that way.

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

How can you compare 2023 (a time when Iran was sanctioned) with a post war Iran when the US agrees to all 10 points which include Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon? The axis won their war, Iran got everything it wanted, Israel will no longer get US support for its expansionist project, the entire region needs to rebuild, why on earth would Hezbollah start a war later on?

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u/theStrategist37 Apr 08 '26

One reason is because its stated goal is to destroy Israel. Another aspect is, I doubt Iran has won, I'm fairly sure if Iran gets close to getting nuclear weapons again, there will be another war, it's existential for Israel given current Iran's stated goals. And if Iran thinks it's won, it'd probably try. Just one possible scenario.

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

Iran just changed the world, it proved that hypersonics are an alternative non-nuclear deterrent, Israel is toast, the US needs to pay for this whole ordeal and it will be cutting military aid to Israel.. the stated goal even according to the ayatollah is to end the US hegemony and foreign policy and Israeli aggression, he says it all the time to his people, Iranians have repeated time and time again that they don't hate Americans or Jews, they want to end the State of Israel, not Israel, meaning ending the Jewish State, allowing for a secular state that protects Arabs and Jews alike... For 40 years they've been accused of being weeks away from a bomb, while their ideology prevents them from having one, they went and built tens of thousands of missiles, they had the capability to make a nuke but they tried everything to keep the JCPOA which allows for foreign inspection of their nuclear facilities because they were desperately trying to keep their nuclear energy because they were sanctioned.. in a last effort to show the world that they didn't want nuclear weapons, they enriched uranium up to 60% as a way to prove to everyone that they can do it, but they won't do it, it was a signal and a threat, the demand was sanctions relief, and this deal just gave them everything they ever wanted.. Iran won the war, and did it without nukes, and is on its way to become a major economic power in the region.. all the other players are at a disadvantage now except for Iran

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u/theStrategist37 Apr 08 '26

Israel is toast? Want to compare damage Israel took to, say, Iran or Lebanon?

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

Pointless to talk to you if this is all you have to say to everything i said .. this is not a damage comparison.. this is a statement of fact, Israel as a state is in deep shit.. Lebanon as a state is fine.. and the war is between Iran who wants peace and stability and Israel who wants expansion, Iran wins, Israel loses, you wanna repeat the whole "hayda ma essmo intissar" rhetoric, but you never listen when people explain why it is a victory, an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon coupled with no ambitions in the regions for the foreseeable future is definitely a victory, if you go attack someone and don't achieve your goals, you lose and they win even if you gave them a black eye, they endured and you lost your game.. this is what the conversation is about.. the US lost a war according to the US analysts not according to me, and they will have to change their foreign policy towards the middle east, which includes the Israeli aid.. this is historic

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u/theStrategist37 Apr 08 '26

If it's pointless of you to talk, don't. But Israel's stated goal with Iran was setting back nuclear and missile program... you think that wasn't achieved?

Don't make same mistake Hamas made on October 7th where it thought Israel just needs the push and it'll collapse... yes Israel has internal troubles, but shooting some rockets on them tends to be a unifying factor for quite a while.

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

Nuclear weapons were never the Iranian goal, the nuclear enrichment is already on the 10 point deal the US will be negotiating in Pakistan, and Iran still has missiles for years to come. Meaning the ballistic program is alive and well, and the nuclear energy program is on its way to become ratified and protected, and the regime didn't fall, Israeli and american goals are an epic miserable fail.. the US had to pull interceptor stocks from all over the world to replenish the iron dome and its bases and still it fell short, Israel is literally defenseless to missiles.. you're living under a rock watching too much mtv

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u/Over_Location647 Lebanese Diaspora Apr 08 '26

The US didn’t agree to Iran’s 10 point plan and Iran didn’t agree to the US’s 15 point plan. They both agreed that they can negotiate from here. But neither side has agreed to anything yet. You’re talking as if Iran’s 10-point plan is a done deal and the US has surrendered. They haven’t even started talking yet and the ceasefire is temporary. Don’t you think you’re jumping the gun a little?

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

I may seem like I'm jumping the gun to you, but this outcome has been inevitable for a while now, it was only a matter of when and how will the US take the offramp.. just read the announcement by the Pakistani PM, he clearly says the US agreed to a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon effective immediately (not saying it works like magic, but this is the intention that is being reported on by the people who are mediating the talks), even the Israelis are disappointed with the US and feel betrayed, Trump didn't tell them about it until 1 hour before the announcement (he called bibi), what we're witnessing is a catastrophic US failure being mascaraded as a US victory, while Iran still has the leverage, they will open the strait of Hormuz and still be in control of it, they literally own the strait now, the Americans had to give up everything to secure this ceasefire, will they negotiate their way out of a few of the 10 points? Probably.. but they will be forced to give them something better to convince them.. and I doubt Iran will ever accept to give up any of those points because it's in a position to get them for the first time in history, and they paid a heavy price to get here.. this might not happen overnight, the ceasefire might be shaky especially with Israel's efforts to sabotage the peace, but there's a huge difference between these negotiations and the 2 previous rounds that turned out to be a set up.. this time the US is in deep shit, unable to defend its assets, unable to handle the economic backlash, doesn't have support to draft troops to continue, pulled its stock of interceptors from all over the world and is running short, Israel is suffering casualties, unable to invade still.. the entire scene is different..this is a withdrawal not just from the battlefield, this is a withdrawal from hegemony over the middle east in order to salvage whatever remaining interests it has

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u/Over_Location647 Lebanese Diaspora Apr 08 '26

We’ll have to wait and see if this ceasefire even holds in the first place and what the actual outcome will be. Every side is saying different things and all of them are propagandizing. You’re taking an extremely optimistic point of view. I don’t think this is anywhere near over. But that’s just my opinion. We’ll have to wait and see. At the end of the day my goal is whatever benefits Lebanon most, and that means an end to the war. I don’t see an Iranian win as ideal or good, because shifting from US dominance to IRGC dominance is just shifting from one shitty imperialist hegemon to another . But my primary concern is the end of the war on us, first and foremost. Nshallah kher.

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

First of all don't tell me about your goal as if I'm from mars and have a different goal, this is everyone's goal and it doesn't add value to the argument, m7assasne ka2anne baddeh gher shi bel hayet w Mish 3aref, aw ka2an eza 7kit hal kelmten bi2addim w bi2akher bi 7adissna.. yes my view is optimistic, but it's not a naive one, sure the ceasefire might not hold, I'm not predicting the future here.. I'm just describing where things are headed, it could be finalized in this round, or it can drag months and still end with the same result.. the US cannot sustain this war unless it wants to nuke Iran.. that's an outcome I refuse to believe, not because it can't happen, but because the alternative is already better for everyone, and this is the first time the US makes a step towards that alternative, they cannot fight this war, neither can Israel, this isn't an ideological view, this isn't an uninformed opinion

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u/Over_Location647 Lebanese Diaspora Apr 08 '26

It is naive though, and I suspect you’ll come to see that in the coming weeks.

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

If you have analysis to share, information to share, things to discuss, by all means.. but you're just judging based on your perspective, while I'm sharing my perspective instead of judging you.. I'll stick to research and analysis from experts across the board who've called it ever since the war started, and I repeat, this is the inevitable trajectory, it might not work in this round, but it definitely is headed in that direction

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u/Over_Location647 Lebanese Diaspora Apr 08 '26

We’ll have to wait and see and I never judged you, I said your view/perspective is naive, I didn’t say you yourself were naive or stupid. We are clearly listening to very different experts and analysts and have very different personal biases because we have a totally different outlook on the situation. And that’s okay. Was interesting discussing with you anyway.

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u/oussamawd Apr 08 '26

Technically speaking yes you did judge, and I didn't take it personal, focus on my language, I said you judged based on your perspective, i didn't say you're judging me.. the point I'm making is you can either talk about your perspective and have a conversation, or you can judge my perspective and call it naive.. if I were to listen to your perspective and call it naive you'd say I judged too, but I would've probably gave counter arguments or discussed, and if I wanted to describe it as naive it would be in the context of the arguments not as a blanket statement.. pleasure discussing with you too

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u/Over_Location647 Lebanese Diaspora Apr 08 '26

It’s 5 am and I haven’t slept, so sorry for misunderstanding my brain is frazzled and mnel ekhir ma ele ken jlede to list why I think what I think because I’m tired and I can’t sleep (trust me I’ve tried).

Bas in short, I don’t agree that the US can’t sustain this war long term/outlast Iran, and I also don’t agree that the US can’t inflict enough damage to force an end to the war without nukes. They’d have to commit some serious warcrimes to win militarily, but they have in the past and I don’t expect them to shy away from it now, especially not with the orange fascist at the helm.

This is a very short tdlr as to why I don’t agree with your perspective and consider it naive.

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u/gendalf666 Apr 09 '26

Amount of Kool-Aid reached intoxication point.