r/ukpolitics • u/financialtimes Financial Times • 6h ago
Britain re-entering the EU ‘an inevitability’, says Treasury minister
https://www.ft.com/content/0ad478bf-a175-4a95-95ed-34af64914a84?segmentid=c50c86e4-586b-23ea-1ac1-7601c9c2476f•
u/tskir 6h ago
I'm all for it, but — Eh? Huh? How did we get to the point where this is being discussed so frequently and seriously? How did this discussion arose from any of the things that have been happening in British politics for the past months/years?
I feel like I'm watching a series, got distracted just for a moment and now I can't make sense of what the hell is happening on screen.
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u/360_face_palm European Federalist 6h ago
It's governments finally coming to the realization (or at least finally being able to admit to it) that Brexit is exactly the thing hampering growth that would otherwise allow us to 'fix' the cost of living issues we're having right now.
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u/TurboUnionist1689 6h ago
So we would have grown at Usa levels in the EU still.
Thats the model right?
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u/Capt_Zapp_Brann1gan 5h ago
It is rather funny. The Eurozone has had anaemic growth, yet somehow we would be different if we were back in.
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u/Astonednerd 5h ago
Back in? We've literally never been in the eurozone, nor is anyone serious saying we should be.
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u/Capt_Zapp_Brann1gan 4h ago edited 4h ago
You have misunderstood - although I am partly to blame as I had not worded it very well. Let me expand my point.
The eurozone has experienced fairly anaemic growth for years. Why should we assume that rejoining the EU would, by itself, transform the UK's growth prospects?
Tp clarify, I am not saying we have ever been in the Eurozone. Although, the euro might be a sticking point if we were to look to rejoin.
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u/expert_internetter 5h ago
I've not seen any proof that it would fix anything. Ireland is having the exact same issues as the UK.
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u/No_Echo2745 6h ago
I think the public have been quite clear that they think it's immigration that's the issue.
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u/360_face_palm European Federalist 5h ago
Well it's great that brexit fixed immigration then huh
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u/No_Echo2745 5h ago
It gave us the ability to fix it, but the Tories only care about big business and their donors, so they did the complete opposite of what we wanted.
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u/afpow 5h ago
Doesn’t it go to show the old system was better in this respect?
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u/No_Echo2745 5h ago
No, because the EU still has huge problems with migration and we'd never be able to fix it. This way we actually have a chance.
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u/227CAVOK 6h ago
Imagine their surprise when it turns out that they're wrong, not that they'll ever admit that.
It'll just be "They did immigration wrong" and then they'll vote for the next grifter who will claim to fix it. Rinse and repeat.
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u/No_Echo2745 6h ago
I'm happy to give it a try. Let's try 500k net out for a while, see what happens to housing and the job market.
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u/DxnM 6h ago
The government actually has access to the numbers, instead of relying exclusively on Daily Mail headlines
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u/No_Echo2745 5h ago
You know they're actually daft enough to publish some of the numbers? Mass migration has cost us a fortune.
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u/DxnM 5h ago
Yet it doesn't make a dent compared to the scale of our issues
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u/No_Echo2745 5h ago
It's actually huge. We've imported millions of low-skilled workers workers that are never net contributors.
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u/NicSky001 5h ago
It will fix nothing, it will just allow jobs to drift to cheaper locations in Europe, allow further joblessness for Brit youth as more skilled youth move over etc etc. Brexit is an issue but it not the fix Britain. We need leadership that reduces competitive immigration and it's impact on the NHS, housing etc, resolves privatisation cockups, improves education and battens down welfare, pensions and all types of petty crime.
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 6h ago
Because everyone understands that Keir's promise to "put Britain at the heart of Europe" is meaningless without Britain working extremely closely with/being a part of the EU.
We have a pro-Europe government, the most pro-Europe we've genuinely probably ever had, but we're bizarrely negotiating from outside any proper European institution.
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u/kane_uk 4h ago
Labour being in perpetual crisis, two budgets which have harmed growth and jobs and now you have their leadership shenanigans and the EU question being used as a political football, to both garner support within the PLP for votes and to do damage to opponents, i.e. Wes forcing Burnham to change his Pro EU tune in the Brexit voting constituency he's trying to win.
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u/Petrichawful 6h ago
The initial proposal to is I agree, then comes the even more inevitable shambles when we're offered a much, much worse deal than we had before and the public (with no small poking from malign foreign states) turn against it.
We have to give up the pound? Or at least play an eternal dishonest game of pretending to not meet requirements for the Euro yet? Big turn off.
We have historically adversarial states in the EU making it deliberately awkward and any submission to that gets portrayed as a humiliating surrender used against the PM? Big turn off.
Fisheries will immediately become the focus of everyone's lives again, and France will absolutely make insane demands for access to ours, instant big turn off.
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u/NoticingThing 5h ago
We have to give up the pound? Or at least play an eternal dishonest game of pretending to not meet requirements for the Euro yet? Big turn off.
Yeah I see people say this all the time, but personally I don't believe for a minute this country would play that game. We're the same country that is currently in the process of giving away territory to a people who never owned it because an international court gave a non binding ruling said it belonged to them with arguments on the level of stupidity that Argies have for the Falklands.
Our countries naïve obsession with following international law or agreements to the letter even to our own detriment whilst nobody else will is absurd, we would for certain have the Euro within a decade.
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u/saviourman Vote Giant Meteor 6h ago
Fisheries will immediately become the focus of everyone's lives again, and France will absolutely make insane demands for access to ours, instant big turn off.
Fisheries are no better off than they were before Brexit. That whole argument was a load of shit all along
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u/Petrichawful 5h ago
And it will continue to be when re-entry becomes a serious discussion, doesn't stop it influencing people like bendy bananas.
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u/NoticingThing 5h ago
To be fair we have basically agreed to the same fishery terms as when we were part of the EU so I wouldn't expect improvement. It was supposed to be temporary but Kier extended it for no political gain for over a decade.
Not that they would have seen massive growth regardless.
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u/LongsandsBeach 4h ago
The UK doesn't meet the criteria to adopt the Euro. Two of the four being:
A maximum 3% deficit. UK's is currently around 5%.
A debt-to-GDP ratio of 60%. If it's higher it needs to be seen to be improving. The UK's is 95%.
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 6h ago
>Historically adversarial states
I have a slightly wacky theory that the UK and Russia are far more similar than each would care to admit, but this really rams it home. The Germans committed genocide on the territory of most of the Central European states but they're virtually best of friends nowadays, never mind France and Germany.
But we have to have geopolitical takes that would rival Soloviev on Russia 1 as an excuse to not admit that Brexit was just a mistake.
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u/NoticingThing 5h ago
Frances attitude towards any kind of deal that could benefit both parties doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless you look at the history between us.
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 5h ago
The only thing the French have really been militant over has been defence contracts, and that’s just a basic protectionist measure they can take as part of the EU.
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u/Timbo1994 6h ago
I would support it but don't see how it's an inevitability at all.
Even if it becomes a popular political platform, it will get shelved when it hits the slightest bit of detail which gets lambasted in the press.
A majority may support rejoining in principle, but I'm not sure a majority would support a specific set of terms which the EU would give us.
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u/LegitimatePenguin 6h ago
Funny how terms of the deal only matter now that we want to rejoin but didn't when we voted to leave
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u/marsman 6h ago
I'm not sure why you'd say that the terms of the UK's membership of the EU weren't an issue when we left, they were, its a big part of why we left (that the requirements were not popular).
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u/LegitimatePenguin 5h ago
Im saying the deal that we got with the EU after leaving was never as contentious as it should have been. It was all "Get Brexit done" with no one in government particularly seeming to care about the shit deal we got
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u/marsman 5h ago
Im saying the deal that we got with the EU after leaving was never as contentious as it should have been.
It literally caused a 5 year political melt-down, it was incredibly contentious.... I'm not sure where you are getting the idea from that it wasn't.
It was all "Get Brexit done" with no one in government particularly seeming to care about the shit deal we got
That's simply not true at all, the 'Get Brexit Done' push was at the end of several years of negotiations, parliamentary discussion, public discussion and a couple of General Elections, it was about actually delivering the exit at the point where it was clear that the UK would leave the EU/SM/CU with an agreement in place and put in place a trade agreement..
To pretend it wasn't contentious is to ignore an absolutely insanely uncertain and unstable period in UK politics, largely driven by exactly those issues.
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u/LegitimatePenguin 5h ago
Yes but at no point during that was it ever in question that we would leave. Even if it was a shit deal it was getting pushed through, despite it being completely different to the promises the referendum was sold on.
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u/NoticingThing 5h ago
Yes but at no point during that was it ever in question that we would leave.
You say that like we didn't have literal years of nothing happening regarding Brexit because none of the politicians elected during the vote supported it.
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u/marsman 5h ago
Yes but at no point during that was it ever in question that we would leave.
I mean, it was.. That's why there was the whole push for a second referendum, for 'cancelling' the exit and so on. There was not a move to prevent an exit given the referendum outcome and then two general elections that both supported the UK leaving. The same goes for leaving the EU and the SM(and CU), given what it was that people wanted from an exit..
Even if it was a shit deal it was getting pushed through, despite it being completely different to the promises the referendum was sold on.
It wasn't 'completely different to the promises the referendum was sold on' though. This seems to be almost entirely revisionist, the referendum was sold on (and leave voters reasons for voting leave..) boiled down to sovereignty (so the return of competencies from the EU) and FoM. To meet those, the UK would need to leave the EU and Single Market. The UK did leave the EU and single market, and then negotiated the broadest and most open FTA with the EU that anyone has outside of the SM, and a WA to manage that. That's pretty much bang on for delivering on what was presented in the referendum, and what leave voters were polled as wanting.
The only argument you can really make is that the UK and EU didn't negotiate this before the UK triggered its exit process, but that'd be silly as the EU had been very explicit that it would not discuss, never mind negotiate prior to the UK starting that process (the negotiation was part of the exit process essentially), and again, those were confirmed twice in General Elections.
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u/suboran1 5h ago
Kind of shows how little interest and belief these ministers have in the UK nation. Why do we need to be a puppet of Brussels again?
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u/227CAVOK 5h ago
You do realise that the UK was part of the guys in Brussels setting the rules for the continent?
If brexit did anything it was too make the UK a finger puppet of the EU. There are more bloody rules set by Brussels to follow now than before.
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u/7148675309 3h ago
The UK was never a puppet of Brussels.
You know who a big proponent of the Single Market was? Margaret Thatcher. And the UK fully participated in writing the rules.
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u/mth91 3h ago
You know who gave the Bruges speech and kicked off modern British euro scepticism? Margaret Thatcher.
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u/colei_canis Starmer’s Llama Drama 🦙 3h ago
Both of you are correct, Thatcher was very pro-Single Market since it fit very well with her domestic programme but she did not particularly like the political centralisation in Brussels which increasingly happened after.
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u/7148675309 2h ago
Right. And fast forwarding to 2016 - Merkel explicitly agreed with Cameron about the need for a two speed Europe - something that has been explicitly mentioned since the 1990s.
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u/7148675309 2h ago
Mmmm 91 in your username - I have years on you and remember when Thatcher was in power and when the single market started in 1993.
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u/Living_Board_9169 3h ago
Did you not see that Brexit gridlocked parliament, even with a Conservative majority, for going 4 years? It took Boris basically locking everyone in a cupboard and sending the letter to get it done
This is abject political failure - this is essentially our politicians saying there is nothing else they’d like to do for four more years. NHS, house building, policing, over regulation and consultancy, immigration, nothing. Nothing that can’t wait four years
Have you not noticed the people are desperate?
This is such a “let them eat cake” moment, every time they talk about rejoining, in my opinion
Sorry, can you just fix the reservoirs, prisons, and military spending before fucking off for another four years on your student politics debate please?
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u/superhypersaw 6h ago
Britain re-entering the EU ‘an inevitability’, says Treasury minister
Labour never being elected again ‘an inevitability’ says the public.
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u/greenneedleuk Swing voter. centre to left leaning. 5h ago
100% Bubble says its a good idea. Public will be outraged. Those polls won't mean a lot once the detail comes out!
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u/Xenumbra 2h ago
It's so stupid political energy is wasted on this now. The EU would negotiate in bad faith to set an example out of us. (Their perogitive)
Any mention of the Euro and support for the project would crater, (rightly so, a sovereign currency is a super power) and the press would have a field day with the crawling back energy.
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u/ThinkAboutThatFor1Se 6h ago
The FT really feels like the Japanese soldier in the forest a decade after the war was over.
When Tony Blair doesn’t see it happening, you know the fight is over.
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u/Capt_Zapp_Brann1gan 4h ago
The FT really feels like the Japanese soldier in the forest a decade after the war was over.
That is a great analogy - I like it.
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u/prometheus781 4h ago
Not only did Blair say it isnt going to happen now/yet but he actually seemed to think it was in our interest to stay out atm and dare I say it take advantage of being outside the EU. Both sides have a lot of sorting out to do before any idea of rejoining happens.
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u/mth91 3h ago
Blair has discovered the one thing that overrides his belief in the EU. AI. Man loves two letter acronyms.
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u/colei_canis Starmer’s Llama Drama 🦙 3h ago
Blair being an insufferable AI bro is exactly the sort of bullshit this timeline deserves.
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u/homeinthecity I support arming bears. 4h ago
This just isn’t realistic, given that we’d have to take pretty shocking terms to rejoin which may include the Euro.
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u/Hieroglo 3h ago
"You've chopped it right off, we can reattach it but I have to warn you that you'll only regain 90% of its previous function. How do you want to proceed?"
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u/Status_Initiative_11 6h ago
I'll hold my breath for when a rejoiner can handle a mention of the euro without flinching.
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 6h ago
If it makes you feel better you'll be able to have pictures of the king on the back of the euro coins : )
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u/AdviceFit1692 6h ago edited 6h ago
I don't want to tbh, they'll be dicks about it, can't blame them they want it to be an embarrassment to deter others, but rather not tbh, the future of the Eu doesn't look very prosperous, growing right wing, Frexit on the horizon, AFD talking about it, even Poland which is strange because they benefited massively, were going to be left paying the bills lol..
I wouldn't have left in the first place, it was the small thinking dumb thing to do, if we wanted changes, we could of easily pushed them through within, we would easily have enough support by now, we gave up substantial soft power, but now were out the damage was done, seems even more harmful to re-join in terms of rights given up.
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u/lolzidop 6h ago
From all the talk coming from the EU they're actually happy to take us back without being dicks about it. As they realise closer ties are better, especially when you look at the basket case that is the USA at present.
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u/AdviceFit1692 6h ago
No doubt they'll take us back, just the hoops we would have to jump through, they need the support right now, they're being hit from both sides Russia and the US, but like I said my real concern is France and Germany leaving, and us being stuck with the bill.
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u/lolzidop 6h ago
I'm doubtful those two actually leave, they've seen what it done to the UK. There's always going to folks agitating to leave, but us leaving largely puts the case to bed for other nations.
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u/Minimum_Credit_6672 6h ago
The issue is a far right led france doesn't necessarily have to leave the eu to cause problems and chaos within the bloc, which apparently is what bardella and his policies like referendums on immigration, free movement and other policies like forcing the issue of joint debt will likely result in.
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u/greenneedleuk Swing voter. centre to left leaning. 5h ago
AS they realise how bad the major EU economies are faring. We are in a different place to 2016-20. The EU is weaker not stronger. The successes are the smaller countries and the major players are in trouble.
It is not a surprise to me at all that they would quite like us to come back and as a part of the block strengthen it a little as well as being a bridge to the US (yes that doesn matter to the despite their hardball stance, Trump won't be in forever.)
The question though is will there be benefit. Not for the next 10 years. further than that. Can Europes main economies recover or do they just want another big dog to continue the disastrous technocratic rule that is seeing Germany and France struggle more than we are?
I'm not against rejoining but I just cannot see a future there. The EU and Euro is a disaster waiting to happen held up because of pride at this point rather than any actual real world thought.
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u/jsm97 6h ago edited 6h ago
No other country is going to leave the EU. Please can we stop pretending otherwise. There were right wing Eurosceptic parties in France and Poland 10 years ago but they have all pivoted towards a pro-EU stance and funnily enough immediately after doing that they actually became electable. Brexit also played a role in making Euroscepticsm, for lack of a better term, a bit cringe
With the sole exception of AfD (And even they look like they might be changing their mind) there are zero remotely mainstream parties in any EU country openly calling for an EU exit. It's not going to happen.
Partially the abandonment of Euroscepticsm as a tactical by the European right wing has been to appeal to a new generation of young right wing people, mostly men, who are anti-immigration and anti-Islam but are extremely pro-EU in a sort of "European nationalism" kind of way. This voting bloc doesn't really exist in the UK.
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u/r2d2rigo 4h ago
"Frexit on the horizon"? Stop believing everything you read on the Internet, mate.
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u/FreshPrinceOfH 6h ago
So all we will have achieved is a decade and a half of below average growth and having shed our preferential terms. Brilliant.
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u/Kee2good4u 6h ago
decade and a half of below average growth
Well we have grown more (or very similar) than the comparable European G7 members.
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u/greenneedleuk Swing voter. centre to left leaning. 5h ago
So all we have achieved is higher growth than the comparable countries in the EU. Hmmm.
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u/dangermouse13 2h ago
Would we all want it if they demand stripping us like they did Greece?
I know we’re not bankrupt like they were but i suteggle to make peace with what how the stripped Greece of all the they’re nationalised industries.
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u/360_face_palm European Federalist 6h ago
It was always inevitable - part of the reason why leaving was so pointless.
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 6h ago
Once we've exorcised the demon that is Reform/Farage from British politics (the best way to do this of course is give them 5 years of governance), it will become an inevitability.
Reform will prove that they can't "make Brexit work" (because you can't), and enough elderly racists will have died that everyone will sheepishly admit that, yes, they were wrong.
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u/Battle_Biscuits 3h ago
(the best way to do this of course is give them 5 years of governance), it will become an inevitability.
5 years hey? I'd be surprised to see them lasting more than 5 months before collapsing under the weight of their own incompetence and the inevitable psychodrama.
I do kinda agree with the gist of what you're saying- You kind of have to let the electorate do the wrong thing first before they'd come round to doing what they should have voted for in the first place.
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u/odjobz 6h ago
Are you out of your mind? A single term Reform government would do permanent damage to this country. They'd sell what's left of our public sector to their mates and fuck our foreign relations for a generation. And they might get enough control over the apparatus of state and the media to stay in for a lot longer than one term. There will be no silver linings if they get into office.
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 6h ago
Well let's stop them before they get in then! (Electoral reform, or Labour working with left wing parties Lib Dem/SNP/PC mostly is the best way to do this!)
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u/Minimum_Credit_6672 6h ago
Firewall politics doesn't really work too well as many European countries are currently finding out, as the ability to form lasting and successful coalitions begins to recede, such as in Germany
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u/BuckfastEnjoyer 5h ago
In Austria (where I live) we had the FPOe (Far right party) win last year's election, but the SPOe, OeVP and NEOS (Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems respectively) formed a coalition to keep them out. It doesn't feel like things are falling apart here lol
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u/Jedibeeftrix 3.12 / -1.95 6h ago
in his dreams. does not survive contact with reality.
no thanks. :)
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u/financialtimes Financial Times 6h ago
Lord Spencer Livermore on Monday became the first serving minister to publicly endorse overturning the result of the referendum vote to leave the EU, which happened almost 10 years ago on June 23 2016.
'Should we in due course re-enter the European Union?' Livermore said in the House of Lords. 'In my personal view that is an inevitability'.
Read more, here.
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u/NikDante 6h ago
Apart from the fact the EU won't want us back after all the trouble we caused, we would be joining with no deals and opt outs and all new member states that join must adopt the Euro. This will be very unpopular and rejoining ain't gonna happen...being out of the EU is an inevitability.
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u/DxnM 5h ago
Polls have had 'rejoin' ahead of 'stay out' consistently for several years now, with a stronger margin than 'leave' ever had. The EU have openly said we're welcome back. It'll happen.
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u/Minimum_Credit_6672 3h ago
I supported remain, but polls showing support for rejoin then show this support fading when factors like britian adopting the euro, which is deeply unpopular, have to be considered.
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u/UnloadTheBacon 5h ago
Hard Breturn it is. Let's join Schengen, the Euro, and have Esperanto declared as our new official language.
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u/colei_canis Starmer’s Llama Drama 🦙 3h ago
If we're going to have a universal language we should at least pick Latin.
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u/New-Finding9358 6h ago
Fine. As long as we get a referendum (whether they're legally required to give us one or not). I don't like to think what might transpire when the usual suspects push a 'betrayal of democracy' narrative (which, in all fairness, would be an easy case to make).
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u/Scar3cr0w_ 6h ago
Some decisions should not be left to a democratic vote.
We should never have been given the vote. The British public are no where near informed enough to make an educated decision and they are ripe for misinformation.
A vote would be fuelled by emotion. Not fact. And it is an absolute fact that we are worse off post Brexit. Did you see the recent piece in the economist? Migration from non EU countries is now 4 times higher than migration from the EU when we were in the EU.
Stop the migrants though, right? Now we just have more migrants who are culturally less aligned with us. 🤷🏼♂️
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u/Cold_Ocelot_5684 3h ago
'We should never have been given the vote. The British public are no where near informed enough to make an educated decision and they are ripe for misinformation.' could be said for all elections ever then.
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u/xParesh 6h ago edited 6h ago
Fair enough.
I personally would very much love for the UK to be allowed to rejoin the EU so I can retire in my 40s.
Being fluent in European languages, it would be nice to sell my pokey London flat and buy an larger property in southern spain mortgage free and be allowed to legally move there until I die.
There will will be a massive asymmetric deluge of young highly skilled and ambitious EU workers moving to the UK taking up entry jobs given how dire the EU economy is.
It will be terrible for UK youth who don't have C1/degree level/fluent language skills while being free to move to an EU country while even locals there who are native and fluent struggle to find job.
However I myself will be very much alright jack sunning myself in the Costa Del Sol.
Let's now hear our Labour government champion it from the rooftops because I really need this to happen.
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u/Itchir69 6h ago
UK should join EU with stipulation that there is a £100bn fee to leave
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u/greenneedleuk Swing voter. centre to left leaning. 5h ago
Why would we agree to join with that on our back? Oh of course, they all want in and are happy to sign anything no matter how stupid. Even if you are pro rejoin surely you see that would be one of the worst deals ever and the "thicko" public would see it as such.
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