r/spacex • u/Sling002 • Sep 22 '14

Orcbomm 2 Launch - November 2014?

Has anyone heard if this launch is still on for November? Last I heard, the Orbcomm payload readiness was still in question.

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u/[deleted] Sep 22 '14

There'll be no SpaceX launches in October.

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u/Patzer229 Sep 22 '14

OK. Inside information, or are the announced dates NETs that are never brought forward?

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u/[deleted] Sep 22 '14

Bit of both, actually. Historically, it's incredibly unlikely for a rocket launch to be moved forward. Neither of the payloads scheduled to launch in 2014 are ready. Comsats are built on a JIT model to ensure they're ready when their rocket is too.

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u/somewhat_pragmatic Sep 23 '14

Not that I think SpaceX would do it, but given the payload dependancy is on a third party that would suggest that the only way SpaceX could launch is if they were launching their own payload, perhaps CRS-5 early? NASA has already said that SpaceX needs to put in additional Dragon missions to make up for the cargo shortfall of the SpaceX's CRS contract commitments.

So if there was a core ready to go for an October flight, and if the CRS-5 Dragon was sitting in a warehouse already, could SpaceX even have the option to launch CRS-5 early? Does the ISS have any spare berths that could take a second Dragon while CRS-4 is still berthed?

(Note:this is wild speculation on my part. I don't think its actually likely, but I enjoy the thought experiment)

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u/[deleted] Sep 23 '14 edited Sep 23 '14

Even if you classify Dragon CRS missions as SpaceX's own payload, NASA is still putting their own cargo onto those missions. Some of the science equipment going on board are coming from other space agencies like ESA or JAXA and takes time to procure ready for flight. Any delays in getting all these items ready for the mission is just like waiting for a satellite operator getting their satellite ready for launch. SpaceX can easily get more missions into the manifest but will be entirely dependent on NASA's readiness.

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u/Jarnis Sep 23 '14

You greatly underestimate the lead time for a launch - any launch... They can't just add stuff into the manifest at the last moment.

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u/waitingForMars Sep 23 '14

I'll pile on here: the ports and arrival/departure schedule at ISS are very tightly managed. Pushing in early would almost certainly require putting someone else's launch off, which would require negotiations, etc. to pull off.

Tldr: too many moving parts, won't be done