China’s Fallen Generals Are Getting Unexpectedly Harsh Punishments

[u/Soggy_Association491]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/china-xi-jinping-purge-generals-punishment-death-sentence/

[u/cathbadh]

There are generally two reasons to do this:

1) concerns about Xi's position and wanting to shore up loyalty

2) Preparations for military action by getting rid of dissenters or those who won't be able to perform.

Xi has purged people for "corruption" in the past, and most estimates or an invasion of Taiwan still point to a year or more away for when they'll have the capabilities to even attempt an attack, and most of those ignore the lessons of Ukraine. So I wouldn't go to the worst possibility yet

[u/BendicantMias → u/cathbadh]

China won't invade. Why bother? They don't need to. They could simply blockade Taiwan indefinitely. It's not Ukraine or Iran - it's actually an island. Why do it the hard way? If the US tries to intervene, which is looking increasingly unlikely, it'd be fighting in the most favorable battlespace China could ask for - right in China's backyard, against the PRC Navy (already larger, albeit shorter ranged but who cares when the battle is close to China), Air Force, Rocket Force, Drones and even parts of its army air force. They've also already fortified that area with AA/AD weapon systems all over the place. China is already the world's largest shipbuilder, and drone producer. The US is neither, and far from home. It would be a disaster. So why should they invade?

It is already the policy of the PRC to retake Taiwan, that didn't start with Xi. They largely left it alone for generations as they focused on their own internal development, but the recent uptick in interest to taking it is likely a reaction to the US than cos Xi especially needs to do it politically. Reaction to what from the US? This - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

For both the U.S. and the PRC, the island chain strategy emphasizes the geographical and strategic importance of Taiwan.

Lastly, what does China spend on its military? Its defense spending amounts to 1.7% of its GDP. That's HALF the US figure, and even less than Europe spends. That hardly looks like a massive defense buildup. They could double that and still be only on par with the US, and still under NATO's new defense spending target. They could quadruple that and still only be matching that of Russia, never mind Israel and especially not Ukraine's ridiculous spending (only possible due to massive quantities of foreign money).

So this hardly looks like the prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. More likely they see Taiwan as a foregone conclusion and are only waiting for the best time to deal with it i.e. with minimal foreign intervention. They'd prefer that Taiwan gets disheartened enough by American reticence to help it that it decides to compromise and come to negotiations. And that will wait until the next US president, as right now Taiwan is, like everyone else, hoping Trump will burn himself and his movement out, resulting in a complete volte face in the US govt. after he's gone. China would like to know how much of Trumps' foreign policy will quietly persist after Trump. Then they can decide whether force is needed or simple pressure on Taiwan will do

[u/e00s → u/BendicantMias]

I think the smarter path for them is the slow boiling of the frog. If you do something really clear like a full blockade, it’s easier for your adversaries to conclude that action is appropriate. If you take things slower, with each step purportedly having a legitimate purpose, you make it much more difficult for your adversaries to take the leap of getting involved. It’s like what dictators do when taking power. You don’t just declare yourself President for Life, you slowly erode institutions, with no one step looking like such a big deal.

[u/BendicantMias → u/e00s]

Well that's what China has been doing, and would prefer to keep doing. Even a Chinese blockade, if it comes to that, is expected to be presented as a 'sanitizing' affair to perhaps interrupt the flow of weapons or the like (whether that's true or not matters little), akin to America's 'quarantine' of Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The problem is they have to react to America, not letting it empower Taiwan while they slowly 'boil' it.

You can directly trace the recent rise of Chinese hostility to changes in America, not China, in the form of air and seaspace violations of Taiwan. They rose greatly starting in 2016-17 - China didn't change then (Xi came to power half a decade earlier), America did (Trump came to power on the back of an anti-China crusade, which even Biden continued albeit multilaterally). The largest Chinese naval drills around Taiwan directly followed from more senior US officials visiting the island than had been the case before. The more America escalates its feud with China, the more China escalates with Taiwan, as they see Taiwan as an American asset.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

China may very well not even formally take Taiwan in the end, instead offering it some sort of superficial protectorate status to entice them after a blockade has worn them down. That would leave them nominally 'independent', but without control of their foreign policy. That would avoid bloodshed, but crucially also put an end to their partnership with America. They might eventually end up absorbed in all but name like Hong Kong, but not initially. China can afford to be patient about that, but the island chain demands they act to ensure the US is kept at bay.