China’s Fallen Generals Are Getting Unexpectedly Harsh Punishments

[u/Soggy_Association491]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/22/china-xi-jinping-purge-generals-punishment-death-sentence/

[u/cathbadh]

There are generally two reasons to do this:

1) concerns about Xi's position and wanting to shore up loyalty

2) Preparations for military action by getting rid of dissenters or those who won't be able to perform.

Xi has purged people for "corruption" in the past, and most estimates or an invasion of Taiwan still point to a year or more away for when they'll have the capabilities to even attempt an attack, and most of those ignore the lessons of Ukraine. So I wouldn't go to the worst possibility yet

[u/BendicantMias → u/cathbadh]

China won't invade. Why bother? They don't need to. They could simply blockade Taiwan indefinitely. It's not Ukraine or Iran - it's actually an island. Why do it the hard way? If the US tries to intervene, which is looking increasingly unlikely, it'd be fighting in the most favorable battlespace China could ask for - right in China's backyard, against the PRC Navy (already larger, albeit shorter ranged but who cares when the battle is close to China), Air Force, Rocket Force, Drones and even parts of its army air force. They've also already fortified that area with AA/AD weapon systems all over the place. China is already the world's largest shipbuilder, and drone producer. The US is neither, and far from home. It would be a disaster. So why should they invade?

It is already the policy of the PRC to retake Taiwan, that didn't start with Xi. They largely left it alone for generations as they focused on their own internal development, but the recent uptick in interest to taking it is likely a reaction to the US than cos Xi especially needs to do it politically. Reaction to what from the US? This - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_chain_strategy

For both the U.S. and the PRC, the island chain strategy emphasizes the geographical and strategic importance of Taiwan.

Lastly, what does China spend on its military? Its defense spending amounts to 1.7% of its GDP. That's HALF the US figure, and even less than Europe spends. That hardly looks like a massive defense buildup. They could double that and still be only on par with the US, and still under NATO's new defense spending target. They could quadruple that and still only be matching that of Russia, never mind Israel and especially not Ukraine's ridiculous spending (only possible due to massive quantities of foreign money).

So this hardly looks like the prelude to an invasion of Taiwan. More likely they see Taiwan as a foregone conclusion and are only waiting for the best time to deal with it i.e. with minimal foreign intervention. They'd prefer that Taiwan gets disheartened enough by American reticence to help it that it decides to compromise and come to negotiations. And that will wait until the next US president, as right now Taiwan is, like everyone else, hoping Trump will burn himself and his movement out, resulting in a complete volte face in the US govt. after he's gone. China would like to know how much of Trumps' foreign policy will quietly persist after Trump. Then they can decide whether force is needed or simple pressure on Taiwan will do

[u/cathbadh → u/BendicantMias]

They could simply blockade Taiwan indefinitely.

Because the rest of the world will just accept the end of their tech sectors and a future of Chinese dominance over them?

Why do it the hard way

Because the world won't actually just roll over and give you everything you want and bow down before you, so you need to take the island quickly because you have zero experience whatsoever at fighting wars and have a fragile economy that can be shut down with a few submarines to the point where it would collapse and you'd face famine?

it's actually an island

... Which makes things harder for them, not easier should they actually have to do something other than stand around and declare a blockade.

If the US tries to intervene, which is looking increasingly unlikely, it'd be fighting in the most favorable battlespace China could ask for - right in China's backyard

Its only the most favorable battlespace they can ask for because they're incapable of projecting power anywhere else. In any case, the US's ability to project power, especially in the air and at sea is renown.

against the PRC Navy

The one with no relevant experience in well over a century, attached to a government not known for winning wars, fought by completely untested sailors, lead by inexperienced leaders?

(already larger, albeit shorter ranged but who cares when the battle is close to China

This is propaganda, and not even good propaganda at that. Their ships are smaller and weaker. The main way to judge naval forces is by displacement, which the US leads in. You could also use experience, but China has zero, and equipment quality, which the US is known to have whereas China only has untested designs.

Air Force

The one that's never fought anything at all? The one who's latest and greatest planes barely qualify as 5th generation?

Rocket Force, Drones

Probably the most relevant part. Too bad only they have these weapons and Taiwan and the US don't I guess.

even parts of its army air force

Really? Ok fine. So then we should include the US Army's air assets too, right? That would mean the US is bring the first, second, and third largest air forces on the planet to the fight, instead of just the first and second.

China is already the world's largest shipbuilder, and drone producer.

They're also a huge importer of food. And fuel. And fertilizer. And seeds. As well as being entirely dependent on exports to fuel their economy. This is what their fans on Reddit don't seem to get. Any plan for China to succeed in a war with the US REQUIRES the assumption that the US and the rest of the world will just continue to trade with China. It is preposterous, especially under Trump (required reddit disclaimer: I am not praising him). The US would interdict all shipping in and out of China. They would be mostly cut off from their sources of fuel right when they need fuel the most. War consumes incredible amounts of fuel. It also consumes a great deal of food. China imports a third of their food. How long can they manage without food imports? What happens if they miss a planting season because they didn't get the fertilizer they need?

The US of course wouldn't fight alone either. Alongside Taiwan, a nation that can also produce drones of its own, would be Japan, Australia, The Philippines, some of Europe, and possibly even South Korea. Who would be joining China?

It would be a disaster. So why should they invade?

Yes, China's reddit fans say it will be a disaster. They also make long posts without acknowledging anything could possibly go wrong for China or that it has any flaws whatsoever.

What happens when a US destroyer escorts a cargo ship or two towards Taiwan? Do you think China will be willing to start a world war and attack them? Note that that would make them braver than the Soviets ever were as they folded when presented with a similar situation.

Lastly, what does China spend on its military? Its defense spending amounts to 1.7% of its GDP. That's HALF the US figure, and even less than Europe spends.

Do you think there's any reason for that? Could it possibly have to do with being able to dictate wages to employees who often may not have a choice in the work they do? Or their ability to just declare the value of whatever they want within their country? Or the quality of what they're producing?

It is already the policy of the PRC to retake Taiwan, that didn't start with Xi.

No, but he's the one pushing for firmer dates and has expressed a desire to complete it before he dies. China has been 1 year away from invading since I was in high school in the 1990's, so I don't think they're going to risk the status quo and attack. Despite what some think, it would be disastrous for them, their economy would be in shambles, their people would be starving, and if they won, it would be control of an island with little economic value afterward. That may not prevent them from doing it for ideological reasons.

It would be pretty disastrous for the US and everyone else involved as well. Hopefully they don't fall into the absurd notion that a blockade is a perfect tactic with no chance of failure that will give them everything they want.

hey'd prefer that Taiwan gets disheartened enough by American reticence to help it that it decides to compromise and come to negotiations.

How disenheartened would you have to be to consign your family to torture camps? Because that's what will happen to a large number of people in Taiwan. The rest just have to face constant surveillance, the end of most freedoms, and the occasional trip to a tiger chair when they make the mistake of complaining about things as trivial as bad parking.

China would like to know how much of Trumps' foreign policy will quietly persist after Trump

Well, what do you think? Do you think the US after Trump will decide it no longer cares about having a tech based economy or remaining a super/hyperpower?

[u/onespiker → u/cathbadh]

Think the food part is a bit overstated considering the size of thier food reserves. They have like 85% of the world's food reserves something like enough without any food production to support a year of consumption.

So yea they can hold on a while with likely more enough time to scale up to cover thier own needs.

This wouldn't be without substantial costs to thier own economy though. ( especially considering that it would then likely need to take a large share of the then limited fossile fuels needed for thier economy).

They are also currently seem to be doing a lot of agricultural development to increase thier productivity in that area and to likely make them even more self reliant.

This will take a while to advance to substantially effect thier current deficit but there are plenty of things that they can already do to make it way more productive, but that would be taking away recources from thier industrial focus( witch boosts gdp growth way more )

Generally agree with everything else.