r/finansije • u/DoktorMenhetn Investitor • 6d ago

Video We Uncovered a Hidden Wealth Transfer in the SpaceX IPO. You're Holding the Bag.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYA-z0Y8WRQ
18 Upvotes

95% Upvoted

19 comments sorted by

3

u/Appropriate-One4607 6d ago

Moze li neki tldr

7

u/DoktorMenhetn Investitor 6d ago

Ovo mi je Gemini izvukao, ali svakako mislim da vredi pogledati video.

Is the SpaceX IPO a Trap for American Retirement Accounts?

The Core Issue: SpaceX is going public this month at a historic $1.75 trillion valuation. However, investigative financial journalists argue that the entire rollout has been engineered to artificially pump the stock price so Elon Musk’s wealthy backers can cash out, leaving everyday retirement savers holding the bag.

Here is exactly how the system is being manipulated:

1. Shuffling Twitter/X Debts Into SpaceX

When Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion, a group of wealthy venture capitalists, banks, and foreign princes backed him. Within a year, Twitter (X) lost more than half its value. To save his backers from massive losses, Musk used a series of zero-cash stock swaps: he merged X into his new company, xAI, and then had SpaceX absorb xAI.

  • The Result: The people who lost money on Twitter now own a massive chunk of private SpaceX shares, and they need an IPO to turn that paper into real cash.

2. Charging a "Batsh*t" Price

SpaceX makes real money from Starlink and government contracts (around $19 billion last year). However, its $1.75 trillion IPO asking price is 50 times its revenue. For context, when Facebook went public, it asked for 10 times its revenue. Financial analysts call the SpaceX pricing completely unprecedented and disconnected from reality.

3. Engineering a "Short Squeeze" on Day One

To ensure the price skyrockets immediately after launch, SpaceX is manipulating supply and demand:

  • Tiny Supply: They are only releasing less than 5% of the company's total shares to the public (normal IPOs release 15–20%).
  • Targeting Unprofessional Investors: They are giving 30% of those shares to regular "Main Street" investors instead of professional banks. Wall Street experts note that when a company heavily targets regular people, it usually means professional investors refuse to buy it at that price.

4. The Hidden Trap: Shifting the Risk to Index Funds

This is where it affects millions of Americans who don't even plan on buying SpaceX stock.

Usually, a new stock has to trade publicly for up to a year (called "seasoning") before it can be added to major indexes like the NASDAQ 100. This protects the market from volatile, unproven stocks.

However, NASDAQ heavily competed against the New York Stock Exchange to win the SpaceX listing. To secure it, NASDAQ quietly changed its rules to introduce a "Fast Entry" loop. Now, SpaceX can enter the NASDAQ 100 just 15 trading days after going public.

  • Why this matters to you: Nearly a third of all American retirement savings are parked in passive index funds (like 404(k)s and Mutual Funds). By law, when a stock joins an index, every fund tracking it is legally forced to buy it.
  • A massive "wall of retirement money" will automatically flood into SpaceX, forcing the stock price to skyrocket regardless of whether it is a good investment.

The Ultimate Play

As millions of automatic retirement accounts are forced to buy SpaceX at its absolute peak price, the lockup rules for early investors will expire. The original backers of Twitter, xAI, and SpaceX will be able to sell their shares at this artificially inflated high point, transferring wealth from ordinary retirement savers directly to billionaires.

The Bigger Danger: Because index funds are self-regulated, the SEC didn't check this. Now, the S&P 500 is considering the exact same rule change so they can fast-track other massive, unprofitable tech companies (like OpenAI and Anthropic) into the general public's retirement portfolios later this year.

0

u/gdesikuco Zoloft & Kanban boards 5d ago

A smejali smo se sami sebi zbog onog nesretnika Relje Ognjanovića i blokiranih računa PIO Fonda...

1

u/DoktorMenhetn Investitor 5d ago

Relja je naše pare na vreme skolnio od nas. Veliki vizionar, samo mi to ne znamo da cenimo.

2

u/pailhead011 6d ago

Opljačkace nam penzije

-1

u/bkovacev 5d ago

They took er jobs

3

u/TombadiloBombadilo 6d ago

Najavljen je OpenAI IPO, a za njima vrv sledi i Anthropic. Imaš više slojeva tu. Većina spekuliše da je SpaceX izašao prvi jer se boje da retail investitori neće imati kapaciteta za sve AI IPO-s jer su valuacije ludačke. SpaceX je btw AI kompanija primarno. To im je najveći market. E sad jos jedna caka je da ce SpaceX po svemu sudeci ući u nasdaq 100 i to su bas skoro napravili neko pravilo da kompanije mogu da udju u index "na brzaka". To je generalno loše jer većina IPO ima uzasan performanse kad se slegne hype. Ulaskom u index pasivni investirori su naterani da kupe po najhapovanoj ceni. Zato je pre i važilo pravilo da novi listing ne može odma da udje u indexe.

1

u/Appropriate-One4607 6d ago

Rekose da se jos ne zna kad ce vwce da ga uzme u obzir, mene sad zanima kad spacex iskoci i ljudi hteli ne hteli pocnu da ga kupuju direktno ili kroz indekse, i posle 1-2 meseca kad dostigne pik pa krene prodaja, da li ce to povuci i prodaju SP indeksa i da li to onda znaci da ce generalno i SP indeksi i vwce biti posredno afektovani time i da tada sledi pad cene svega?

1

u/RealAlphaKaren 5d ago

sve zavisi kada index ukljuci spacex u svoj pool, svaki index ima svoja pravila, ovde je rec o tome da jedan od najvecih indexa u americi u kom su stornirane pasivne pare hoce da ukljuci spacex nakon samo 15 dana tradinga, kad je hype i dalje u vrhu

ovo primarno pogadja ljude koji su u nasdaq100, sekundardno sve ostale jer ce biti ripple effect

s&p500 nece ukljuciti spacex tako brzo, ako je verovati istoriji, tako da, kao i uvek, jebem li ga

1

u/TombadiloBombadilo 6d ago edited 6d ago

Nemam pojma pravo da ti kazem. Zivi bili pa videli. Ja sam ocekivao sell off mesecima pa nas evo na all time high.

-2

u/vanhunt1 6d ago

SpaceX nije AI stock, primarni deo vrednosti akcija jesu njihovi sateliti i vrednost se zasniva na predvidjanju da ce pokriti ceo svet satelitskom konekcijom direktno na telefone

1

u/vanhunt1 5d ago

Serem se u usta ovim downvoterima. Pa pričajte sa mnom mamlazi, nemate pojma o čemu pričate. Nije u AI bablu svaki stock AI stock. Mućnite glavom

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u/Unlikely-Put-5524 6d ago

https://youtu.be/IHD8BDFYyGI?si=ok1vo2lRb_7rNN15

1

u/TombadiloBombadilo 6d ago

Mislim da je i on malo previse biased protiv njih. Slazem se sa većinom, ali mislim da je taj deal koju napravili sa Antropicom dobar potez jer dobijaju datu koja im treba za trening. Zanimljivo je pogledati sta je Cursor uradio sa Composer modelom poslednjim.

Svakako valuacija ludačka. Ali ono očekivano donekle.

2

u/kljaja998 6d ago

Jedna napomena za ljude koji kupuju etf-ove:
većina etf-ova su tzv. "free-float weighted", tj. gleda se vrednost samo akcija koje su u slobodnom opticaju.
SpaceX će dati manje od 5% akcija u opticaj, tkd i sa bilionskim IPO-om, udeo u etf-ovima će biti mizeran

1

u/ManekenkaDaBudem 5d ago edited 5d ago

Mali investitori nemaju šta da traže na Spacex IPO-u, u trenutku kada je ceo space sektor u bubble-u, I kada je spacex na 100x revenue, I neprofirabilan. Možda da sačekaju par meseci kada se slegne prašina, priblizi kraj lock up perioda, I onda ako je akcija pukla pogledaju vredi li. 

1

u/Much_Passenger_3342 5d ago

Ne vidim kako je ovo realno (mozda gresim).

SpaceX može da izađe na IPO sa valuacijom oko $1.75T, ali to ne znači da će toliki iznos "ući" u indekse.

Poenta je da indeksi ne gledaju celu valuaciju firme, nego uglavnom free float / investable market cap - tj. koliko akcija je stvarno dostupno za trgovanje. Za SpaceX se pominje oko $70B investable market cap, što je samo oko 4% od ukupne valuacije.

Zato bi u S&P 500 SpaceX verovatno bio samo oko 0.1% indeksa, svakako ne neki ogroman udeo.

U Nasdaq bi mogao da bude veći, otprilike oko 0.5%, jer Nasdaq ima brža pravila za ulazak velikih IPO-a i drugačiji cap vezan za float.

Opet ne izgleda mi to kao nikakav "doom" scenario.

2

u/Awakened0ne 3d ago

i hope you are right for my wife and my retirement plans' sake