Nogizaka46 41th Single Saigo ni Kaidan wo Kakeagatta no wa Itsu da? (最後に階段を駆け上がったのはいつだ?) Round 1 online Meguri/Meet and Greet Application Result

[u/Motor_Poet7894]

Alright it's that time again

Some quick notes

-This time Saya is exempted as she has sold out 400 slots.

-6th gen are all added to the unders

-Rika will be graduating,thus only selling 15 slot

-Ume being exempted and graduating,will only be selling via real meet and greet

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

I've always wondered - why do members who sell out the real meguri get exempted from the online one? I don't see this done for other idol groups.

I assume the timings are different.

Don't they want to make more money/meet more fans?

[u/Few-Salamander-3650 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

> why do members who sell out the real meguri get exempted from the online one? I don't see this done for other idol groups.

It's historical and Nogizaka is the only one doing that. Shiraishi and then Nishino were the first two members who reached the quota and got excluded in individual handshake events.

First, for those who are not familiar, we need to distinguish between the past and present fan-meeting systems.

Individual handshake event (old): You apply lottery through fortunemusic and choose which members who you want to meet. Depending on the member, if she hasnt sold out all her slots, you can still apply to it although sometimes they offered extra chances before when there were still tickets available and the date of the event is near. You'll only pay after you win the lottery. (Paying the IHS tickets = Buying regular edition CDs and they will ship it to your home)

National handshake event (old): You buy "limited edition" CDs and each CDs comes with an entry code. You access a separate application site and enter the code there. Before, they also sell these CDs at the venue and you can buy as much as you want and no lottery or booking required, which is why there were members before whose queue were ridiculously long like nishino and shiraishi. Fans usually enter this event when they failed to win in IHS.

Online meet&greet (new): Just the same with IHS. The only difference is that you'll be meeting the member online on the scheduled date in fortunemusic.

Real meet&greet (new): The application is somewhat the same with NHS. The only difference is that after you apply in fortunemusic using the serial code, you choose the member you want to meet and hope you win the lottery.

IHS/online miguri is where the 400-slot quota is applied.

Back to your question.

> Don't they want to make more money/meet more fans?

This shouldnt even be a concern before when they were still doing NHS. NHS was one of the factors they were able to reach millions of sales pre-COVID yet things are different now. To be honest, I can see them thinking of new money-grabbing gimmicks instead of abolishing the quota. They can also bring NHS back but NHS was also one of the reasons members go to hiatus because fans of other members (or simply haters) can buy CDs and line up to the member they dislike and hurl insults face to face.

[u/MightMetal → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

Shiraishi and then Nishino

Shiraishi and Matsumura reached it at the same time AFAIK.

[u/Few-Salamander-3650 → u/MightMetal]

Now that you mentioned it, you might be right. Matsumura was also one of the most popular members before. Although I still can remember how insane Nishino's fandom was, they even sleep on the NHS event venue the night before so that they will be the first in line. It was traumatizing lining up to her.

Those were the times...

I cant seem to remember but did Hashimoto reached the quota?

[u/MightMetal → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

I cant seem to remember but did Hashimoto reached the quota?

She graduated before the exemption thing.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

Thanks for sharing how the handshake events used to work (never attended one), but that still doesn't explain why members would/should get excluded for online meguri just for selling lots of the real meguri??

I get that it was done since way back when there was a distinction between NHS/IHS, but no one ever questioned why they would still do it when online is very much a different situation altogether... ? 🤔

[u/Few-Salamander-3650 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

Fans before, as what I remembered, thought of it as a reward system for both the fans and the member's hardwork. It's management's way of saying "You're popular and you've done your part, you're now at the top". It's a win-win thing because fans doesnt need to pay that much anymore and the member's legacy is already carved in the group's history. And besides, the exempted members will still attend real m&g. They went with that idea pretty much, which is why you can read most JP fans still accepting that imposed quota.

But your question is why they let this quota stay even post-COVID where the NHS was already abolished and was changed to online m&g. I honestly dont know and we're not the only ones who realized this. LLC must have their reasons but one thing is for sure. If they abolished this quota now, it's the same as saying the group is in a predicament in popularity, status in the idol world, and in revenue. (although they are already in a predicament because the idol market 10 years ago is so much different from now and they still havent changed their ways)

We'll know the answer next year, when 9 5ki is gonna be exempted and 6ki still arent selling well.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

I honestly cannot imagine 6ki suddenly shooting up in popularity before then, online sales will be a disaster once 5ki's many many aces are gone, perhaps they will just continue to close their eyes and pretend everything is just fine, but I think everyone can imagine an AKB-like situation down the line where most people only know/want to see graduates performing...

Hopefully they will reconsider the policy soon, given that online meguri is the only way to reach out to overseas fans (unless they don't give a shit about growing the group abroad, of cos). Global fandom and touring is one way that can help to revive the group.

[u/Few-Salamander-3650 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

The elephant in the room here is that 6ki (or the group as a whole) cant attract new fans anymore hence why we have a slowly downward trend in popularity. Not 6ki's fault though. They just joined the group at the wrong time.

Also reaching out to overseas fans wont do anything, that's just useless costs. Overseas fans cant do anything and whoever thought that the group would be popular overseas is just fantasy. It has always been like that even pre-COVID. They have a better ground in JP than in any other country. Besides, if they cant even attract new fans in Japan, better ditch that idea.

Ikorabu (=LOVE), Kawarabo (Fruits zipper and their sister groups), TokiSen, HANA, NiziU, Lapone groups like ME:I are just few of the girl groups in my mind that's currently invading the J-idol market and I havent even included the Kpop groups yet. What's the difference of these groups compared to Nogizaka (aside from size)? They have "real" talent and viral songs, Nogi doesnt. These groups also have huge sns engagements, which makes them more visible to the general public. Last time i checked, Nogi's fan demographics are currently around 90% old male. This was so much different from a decade ago where the group has huge female fanbase of about 50-60% (my estimate). And besides, I remember before that Nogizaka was initially marketed as an idol group for teenage girls and women (while AKB was for the males).

If i were the management, it's better to look 3-4 years into the future and plan a "graceful exit" of the group rather than to become another AKB. Umezawa is graduating, KakiSaku are already at that age and could drop their announcement anytime soon. We just have to accept that Nogizaka's concept and rigid policies arent working anymore.

[u/MightMetal → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

Nogi is among the top Japanese entertainment brands and for years they have been the top female group when it comes to concert mobilization. With the concerts performed this year and the upcoming BD live, summer tour etc. they should be already around last year's numbers. Even the annual artist total sales ranking is a big sausage fest where Nogi is usually the only female group.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/MightMetal]

And this seems very much sustained by 3/4/5ki fans... the concern is maybe what happens after if 7ki when it happens comes out with no real aces either?

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

Yah, I was shocked to find 90% male fan base statistic for nogi as I was sure they had plenty of older female fans. I don't know how the stats were counted but it was definitely not 90:10 when I went to Jingu last year. At most 60:40 or 70:30. I saw so many female fans at the concert.

6ki is trying hard but I think visual-wise they don't really have anyone outstanding and that makes it hard to market. Someone like Okoshi, I had trouble remembering her for the longest time. Mitsuki is cute but not overwhelmingly so. Some are literally kids and look like one too.

Compared to 5ki Aya, Terepan, Nagi, Aruno, Mao, Sakutan, even Okahina ... all uniquely distinct in a good way. They are really the strongest generation.

I disagree that overseas are "useless" though. If the homebase is stagnant a possible solution is to grow outwards. If you think of kpop, groups like Le Sserafim are incredibly popular overseas but not so in Korea. Overseas touring (or singing some new anisongs!) is a way to attract new fans- but they are not even trying. Even Sakurazaka is touring more than them around the region.

[u/Few-Salamander-3650 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

> I don't know how the stats were counted but it was definitely not 90:10 when I went to Jingu last year.

They must have pulled the data from ticketing sites and counted those who applied for the lottery (not the actual event goers).

> 6ki is trying hard but I think visual-wise they don't really have anyone outstanding and that makes it hard to market

6ki is fine, I dont see any problem with them in terms of visuals. Let's just say, if the early 3ki was to join the group now, do you think they will do fine? I think they wont. They will also have a hard time selling just like 6ki now. The same question with either shiraishi or nishino in their first year. If they joined now, they both will have a hard time.

> If you think of kpop, groups like Le Sserafim are incredibly popular overseas but not so in Korea.

But then le sserafim doesnt have 30+ members. They also dont do senbatsu system so from a business perspective, it's a lot easier to manage and market them. And that's the same with the other idol groups I mentioned in my previous reply. I do see that Sakurazaka is performing in international events but that begs to ask: Are they marketing the "whole" group or only their senbatsu?

The thing is we are now in the social media and "virality" era. Nogizaka is too outdated now, especially AkiP's senbatsu system. Even looking at this Spotify listeners ranking is making me sad.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

I thought this 90% figure was via some of those survey sites like Oricon Style, where they sample some random people? I tend to trust my own eyes more than such surveys. But of course if it's really through Fortune Music or Nogi FC, then that's another matter...

I think some idols are just more charismatic and have more connection than others, even if timing matters. If Nanase or Asuka joined now, my feel is that their star quality will still shine through in the end somehow.

For groups with many members, it's not a bad idea to market senbatsu first. No one can remember that many members from the start. They are the strongest members anyway, and most likely to attract new fans. Once u become a fan, u will eventually get to know the rest anyway, right?

Wow, looking at the rankings AKB really had a revival recently!! All's not lost ..😅 and still the top Sakamichi group...

[u/MightMetal → u/Few-Salamander-3650]

Even looking at this Spotify listeners ranking is making me sad.

I'm interested to see where these group will be in a couple of years.

[u/shui1234567 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

It’s been said that there is a “hidden rule” of meet and greet exemption after completing about 400 rounds. If this rule is still in place, quite a few 5ki members will be exempted this year. They are at around 350 already.

edit: I totally missed that the 400-slot rule was already written in the original post. my bad.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/shui1234567]

I mean, if there is this hidden rule, what is the purpose of it in the first place?

I am quite perplexed at the rationale, that's all. It also means that overseas fans won't be able to ever talk to their oshi if they are one of the really popular ones.

[u/shui1234567 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

These are my guesses:

Maybe part of their contract requirement? Like kinda fulfilment of duty? Meet and greet is quite a taxing activity so exemptions may motivate members to reach their targets, and for fans to support their oshi to reach such goal.

It still takes popular members over 4-5 years to reach such target, by the time they are exempted, new generation may have joined. The exemption then also serve as a way to give the new comers room to grow.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/shui1234567]

On site meet and greet maybe yes, I don't think online meguri is all that taxing? Realistically you are just saying hi to random online fans for a few secs...

And why fans would want to support their oshi to meet this dubious goal (let's not forget it makes their oshi LESS accesible to fans) I do not know.

Perhaps like you suggested they want to force fans to apply to talk to less popular members instead; that is at least a plausible reason, although if it was me, I would just not take part at all rather than choose someone else. 😅

[u/shui1234567 → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

True, the transition may not happen. But nogizaka as a group with moving(? rolling?) members partly counts on that transition to sustain. It's part of the culture I guess? that they have to somehow make it work through the whole nogizaka narrative.

As for why fans would want to support that... maybe like the 6ki song suggested, it is a time-limited kataomoi. there's always a time limit. as is everything else in life I guess. like the rose of the little prince, it's éphémère. see our oshi while we can and treasure the time we have, because it ain't gonna last forever.

Such hakanai (儚い) is what makes life so beautiful and sad at the same time.

That said, business is business. I guess nogi LLC will have to change strategy if the sales figure significantly goes down because of this. 5ki's exemption will be a big challenge. We'd see if 6ki can pick up.

[u/clafelallerizu → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

The rule was for handshake event that got changed to online because of covid..

[u/Elegant_Hat5101]

Glad to see Aya’s numbers rising. Maybe she’ll finally get moved up from the 3rd row next single.

[u/MightMetal → u/Elegant_Hat5101]

Likely that it's because of her birthday.

[u/cfCmrAddct_99 → u/Elegant_Hat5101]

about time for aya to be front row for summer single again! (thats also hoping it will be a summer single again next…). Dream front row is aya-sakura-miku-nagi

[u/Kashiwashi]

Translation?

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/Kashiwashi]

No. of sold out online meguri slots after round 1 of applications

Terepan - 6 slots

Mikkyun - 5

Sakutan - 4

Nagi Aya Aruno - 3

Mao - 1

Remaining members - 0

[u/Kashiwashi → u/Worldly-Landscape-51]

Where is the Miku-Saku-WCenter. They look alike. It would fit so perfectly.

[u/Worldly-Landscape-51 → u/Kashiwashi]

Haha it would be so cool if they had a W center. They really do look very much like sisters, esp when they have the same hair!