r/ClevelandGuardians • u/Affectionate-Key9412 • 3d ago
Discussion AL Central check-in: 1/3rd of the way through the season
After a third of the season, we look up and wonder where KC and DET are. Who are you taking seriously as central contenders for the rest of the year, and does this early lead set us up well to make a big move at the deadline? My thoughts: Detroit getting Skubal back will be a jolt of life, and they can’t continue to be THIS bad. The White Sox will have to fight hard to keep their heads above water, and I’m not sure what to think of them.
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u/jhdesigner 3d ago
Baffles me that there are only 4 American League teams over .500 and the White Sox are one of them.
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u/ChrisBot8 3d ago
Seattle is coming back to life though. I wouldn’t be surprised if they had 85-86 wins at the end of the season.
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u/jhdesigner 3d ago
I don't expect it to be that way all season. Some teams are close and others will get hot. Still odd at this point in the season.
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u/br0b1wan Flying G 2d ago
As much as I hate to admit it, I still think the Twins will be a threat in September
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 2d ago
Meh. Their pitching is pretty mediocre outside of Joe Ryan, and they have like 2-3 good bats.
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u/Warm_Shoulder3606 "Alexa play The Gambler Kenny Rogers" -Clase and Ortiz, probably 2d ago
Their pitching is pretty mediocre outside of Joe Ryan
It's actually not too shabby. Ryan is Ryan, but they've also got Bradley who's doing really well, and that Zebby kid's only done 3 games but he's been good in all of them. And Ober is serviceable.
Their hitting is what's holding them back. Outside of Buxton (who's playing out of his mind right now, good god) and maybe Keaschall and Jeffers, their offense is extremely pedestrian
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 2d ago
Their team FIP is league average, team WHIP is slightly above league average, team ERA is well above league average. Ours is considerably better on all fronts.
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u/Warm_Shoulder3606 "Alexa play The Gambler Kenny Rogers" -Clase and Ortiz, probably 2d ago
I'm not saying they're better, we're definitely better, I'm just that their starting rotation isn't half bad. Woods Richardson is total ass and Prielipp is not too good, but the other 3 + zebby are doing pretty well
I also can't attest to their bullpen, but from the broadcasts I've heard, apparently it's kinda ass lol so I'd be curious how much things are inflated by that side
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 2d ago
Expected stats are even less favorable for them. Their team xFIP is 28th in the league. Starter ERA is 11th, FIP is 12th, xFIP is 22nd. Reliever ERA is 26th, FIP is 20th, xFIP is 28th.
All that to say their pitching results are unsustainably average and will probably regress towards the bottom 3rd of the league.
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u/TedEagle 3d ago
Skubal won't save Detroit. They just aren't very good. I feel like the White Sox will come down to earth at some point, but I've been saying that all season so they might sustain a run. I feel good about where the Guards are but it's far from a cake walk to the division title.
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u/daybreaker Pride G 3d ago
If anything, this start could cause Detroit to go into fire sale mode ahead of the next season's potential lockout, since it doesnt look like Skubal is staying. Had they stayed close to 1st, they'd probably let it ride when Skubal came back to hope for a playoff run
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 3d ago
Right. He's missed 4? starts. They're 3-18 since he went down. Assuming they lost all of the scheduled starts he missed, flip them all to wins and they'd still be 7-14, which is putrid.
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u/Warm_Shoulder3606 "Alexa play The Gambler Kenny Rogers" -Clase and Ortiz, probably 2d ago
IDK about their pitching, but I believe that sox offense is legit. They've got some serious power: Murakami, Colson montgomery, and Vargas all have double digit home runs and 30+ RBIs. And Meidroth has 54 hits on the season. That's a dangerous top of the order
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u/mindinthepsandqs 🥊 DOWN GOES ANDERSON 🥊 3d ago
Fuxkin Murakami is a crazy beast man...
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u/Constant_Term6133 3d ago
DeLauter, Bazzana, and Messick are great, but Murakami is your ROY
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u/canttakethshyfrom_me 3d ago
Which, I'd like for guys who have played for years in AAAA-level leagues like NPB to not be eligible for MLB ROTY, it just isn't fair to true rookies coming from AA/AAA/straight out of college.
But yeah he's got it locked up. At this rate he needs one more month before he can break both arms and both legs and still win the vote.
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
He has been awesome but based on the plate discipline he could also go on a massive cold streak and bring those numbers back to reality. I’m not giving up on our ROYs yet
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u/FrostyTurtle55 3d ago
Pretty sure he has one of the highest walk rates lol
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
1st percentile whiff rate and 5th percentile K rate
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u/twizbuck Flying G 3d ago
Its not a discipline issue, its a contact issue.
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
This is fair. Although not that it’s an actual issue yet, since it’s working. But it could be the reason why if it stops working (I think it’s starting to be both discipline and contact).
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u/dcooper8662 ⚾small ball baseball terrorists⚾ 3d ago
With those powers combined you know what you get? Jim Thome. Second all time in strikeouts, but also a .400 OBP and 600 homers
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
Woah woah woah. This is a rookie 1/3rd of the way through his first season. His profile compares closer to Joey gallo. Let’s chill with the Thome comparison
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u/canttakethshyfrom_me 3d ago
They were pointing those numbers out to deflate your "underlying metrics" argument. They weren't saying that Murakami = Thome. JFC...
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
Man all I said is he’s been awesome but could regress. They said “those numbers get you Jim Thome”
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u/Zoolanderek 3d ago
My man, he has been awesome because of his elite plate discipline, not in spite of bad plate discipline.
If you don’t watch him, you could at least look up his stats. He has both an elite chase rate and elite walk rate.
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
No doubt. I’m saying there’s still something to point at that could be reason for regression. It’s a long season and the ROY race isn’t over yet
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u/Zoolanderek 3d ago
But his plate discipline is clearly not something to point at. He could cool off, but it’s not going to be because of his eye at the plate.
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u/Affectionate-Key9412 3d ago
I want to give a little more context to this and refer to some points that Chris Towers from CBS sports brought up. His K rate has increased through the year (almost 40% in may) and his contact rate is the 4th lowest of all qualified hitters over the past 15 years (only Joey gallo has been relevant with this profile). He’s playing awesome so far, but counting out regression could definitely be short sighted since it’s difficult to maintain success like this
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u/nylon_rag Pride G 2d ago
It's juat semantics, but i think the other commenter's point is that swing and miss isnt typically thought of as part of "plate discipline". E.g. Angel has bad plate discipline but also doesnt whiff at all.
But your thesis is correct; Murakami's whiff issues could easily lead to cold streaks.
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u/patrickstarsmanhood 🥊 DOWN GOES ANDERSON 🥊 3d ago
I, for one, am having a blast watching the Guardians (which should always be appreciated). I think it bodes well for the rest of the season.
I think the White Sox might actually be legit. They're not rolling over like last season. The Tigers are in fact this bad.
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u/_Quendra_ 3d ago
White Sox & twins might pass Guards IMO. Our offense is very inconsistent. Plus we haven't faced some top teams yet who will probably expose us.
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 2d ago
The Twins haven't really played anyone of note.
And what are you talking about with us not facing the top teams?We've played series against 7 of the 10 best NL teams and we went 11-10 in those games. Toss the AL leading Rays in and we're 12-12 against 8 of the 12 best teams in baseball right now.
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u/Marty_Eastwood 3d ago edited 3d ago
White Sox seem like that fun young team with some talent that doesn't know what they don't know yet. I don't expect them to win the division but they could hang around for a while.
I'm not stunned that the Tigers are bad, but I certainly wasn't expecting this. I was expecting more like .500 out of them. Same with KC. Long season, maybe one of them wakes up but the vibes seem real bad in Detroit right now and I think they'd be foolish to not deal Skubal for a haul if this goes on much longer.
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u/Beer-survivalist Mustard 3d ago
I think they'd be foolish to not deal Skubal for a haul if this goes on much longer.
I suspect the logic in delaying is that they believe waiting until the deadline will maximize what they can get in return because he'll be further along in recovery--either that or nobody is willing to deal until they get to see him start throwing in MiLB games.
But it's also the Tigers, and that is the front office that put their mess together, so who knows?
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u/daybreaker Pride G 3d ago
Flip us and the White Sox, and this is the exact opposite of every "expert" pre-season prediction.
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u/420DonCheadle420 3d ago
Couldn’t help but notice the same thing. It is practically completely upside down.
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u/MasterApprentice67 3d ago
Im curious if the tigers are trying to get 16gms back of the division lead so they can beat the 15.5 game division comeback Cleveland pulled off last year…
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u/nextlevelham 🏠🏃♂️🥊 3d ago
The Tigers had 1 good month at the end of 2024 and 2.5 good months at the start of 2025 and other than that have been awful for a decade. I think they have gotten way too much benefit of the doubt that they “should be good” compared to what they have actually done on the field.
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u/Competitive_Ad1237 3d ago
Tip your hat to Chicago being above 500. The best part about Cleveland being this good early on is that we play our best starting in July
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 2d ago
Our August and September schedules are also REALLY soft. From August 17th through September 13th, the only decent team we play is the Blue Jays.
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u/DaDrFunk 🥊 DOWN GOES ANDERSON 🥊 3d ago
Very solid reload type of year for us. Jose will eventually pick it up, hoping Kwan and Manzo can continue to find their groove and this lineup is suddenly dangerous.
The rotation still needs some work. I’d love to add a starter like Alcantara or Rodgers if they become available, and I think we have the prospects to afford it.
One more bullpen arm would also be very nice at this point.
Overall, happy with the year so far and the future to come, cuz man does Bazzana look good.
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u/canttakethshyfrom_me 3d ago
Starter (doesn't have to be an ace), bullpen depth is always worthwhile, and there's still a space in the outfield as long as our CF is Schneemann or Halpin on days CDL doesn't DH. And if there's opportunity for an upgrade over Hoskins for a veteran right-hander who rarely takes the field, that's worth considering. Other positions are pretty well stocked with players good enough for the team to compete.
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u/No_Contribution_7635 3d ago
Hoskins looks pretty safe, not allot of better first base righties readily available. Do I think he'll be playing in September? Ehhhhhhhhh.
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u/No_Contribution_7635 3d ago
Manzo's pace for improvement may be too slow to hold back a Ralphy Velasquez by July.
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u/DaDrFunk 🥊 DOWN GOES ANDERSON 🥊 2d ago
If Ralphy comes up, Hoskins is gone. Not Manzo
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u/No_Contribution_7635 2d ago
I just don't see THIS team going with two lefties if Ralphy is that good.
If he's as great as everyone says then he'll just be the only 1st baseman over Rhys and Manzo, platooning be darned.
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u/DaDrFunk 🥊 DOWN GOES ANDERSON 🥊 2d ago
Someone still gotta DH, and that’ll be Manzo cuz Hoskins is easy to cut. Ralphy to my knowledge also isn’t a good fielder.
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u/No_Contribution_7635 2d ago
That ignores one of the blazing hot catchers like Cooper Ingle or Kody Huff for an alt OF spot in place of Fry for a DH spot.
Ingle hit a three run homer and called five successful ABS challenges last night.
Rhys Hoskins survival would also depend on fielding.
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u/PissedCaucasian 3d ago
Of course I hope every central team loses everyday except Cleveland but I hope the White Sox stay in 2nd. Going to see a weekday game in Chicago at the end of June. I’m so glad I bought those Front Row tickets on the third base line back in March. Without a doubt they’re more than $75 each today. I hope to get Jose to sign my Funko Pop of him too.
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u/Siawyn Block C 3d ago
Detroit is cooked.
Skubal being out hasn't helped, but he's only one pitcher. Valdez has not been good, Flaherty has been God awful.
More importantly, their position players have been terrible. They have 4 players with negative WAR in their starting lineup -- Vierling, Perez, Jones and Torkleson. McGonigle is the real deal, but he's still only one player. Their utility guy (McKinstry) is -1 WAR.
At this point you have to consider Detroit being what they were after the ASG last year - they were 28-37 (even WITH Skubal) and have added 22-35 to that, so that's 50-72.
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u/Heretic_Scrivener 3d ago
I thought it would be us and KC neck and neck all season which shows how much I know.
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u/Xboarder844 ⚾small ball baseball terrorists⚾ 2d ago
Just like all the experts predicted:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2026-al-central-division-preview-predicted-records
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u/StasiuWosilius 2d ago
The CBS ones are even better lol
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2026-mlb-standings-predictions-expert-picks-division-projections/
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u/KahlanRahl Flying G 2d ago
Dayn Perry is an absolute twat. Picking us to finish 5th in a division that contains the Minnesota “traded away half our team at the deadline, and we’ll trade the other half this year” Twins is such a brain dead take. It’s almost unfathomable that someone who calls themselves a baseball writer can be that ignorant.
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u/Commercial_Show_6997 3d ago
Detroit being last is genuinely baffling
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u/canttakethshyfrom_me 3d ago
Complete failure to realize potential, while Guardians and White Sox are vastly outplaying expectations. It's been a weird spring in the AL.
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u/innerdork Bertman's is the superior ballpark mustard 3d ago
The Guards are outplaying expectations? They’re the division champs and been a consistent contender. 🤔
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u/canttakethshyfrom_me 3d ago
And the expectation is always that they will have no offense outside of Ramirez and one other player. Every year. And it's often true.
2 months in this year and they've got production up and down the order, just short one outfield spot and catcher producing.
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u/Senior_Bookkeeper_27 3d ago
And jose has yet to truly heat up. And kwan either. So this team has potential to go somewhere. Let's see if they can go get a bat to get them over the hump!
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u/daybreaker Pride G 3d ago
Even in this sub, when all we signed in the offseason was Hedges again, Hoskins, and some cast off RPs, a lot of people were down on the team being able to break .500
Dont pretend otherwise just because we're doing well. Almost no one thought Messick would be this good, or that we'd call up Bazzana before August AND that he would also be this good.
We all had our hopes pinned on the pitching factory and Kwan finding his 2024 form with Rocchtober being permanent (which thankfully did occur)
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u/innerdork Bertman's is the superior ballpark mustard 3d ago
I'm not the one pretending here when this franchise has proven more times than not that they will succeed and make the postseason regardless of their offense. It's a feature not a bug, and now they have young bats hitting all over the place. Enjoy the ride because this franchise always competes every season.
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u/justhereforthanos ⚾small ball baseball terrorists⚾ 3d ago
Looking forward to the series with the White Sox and how our pitching does against Murakami.
Side note, just realized last week that Grady was on the Twins staff and not still with Chicago. What’re the odds he eventually comes back the Cleveland?
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u/BrojaDawg ⚾small ball baseball terrorists⚾ 2d ago
Could we possibly trade for Skubal, just for this one season? He's going to be cheap to get and it's predicted that a small market team would trade for his services for the 2nd half of season and into post season. Could we grab Skubal for this one year?
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u/OolongGeer 2d ago
Looks about right.
What's scary (and fun) is that this has come with a slumping Jose Ramirez.
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u/Constant_Term6133 3d ago
Based on the last 12 months, I believe the Tigers can in fact be this bad.