r/space • u/Daddys_Lil_Monster_ • Feb 17 '25

Asteroid 2024 YR4 - Chance of Earth impact in 2032 now increased to 1 in 38

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

So 2,6 % chance of hitting Earth but still 97,4 % that it’ll miss. Anyone who knows how it would move up on the Torino scale if the risk keeps increasing?

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u/qp0n Feb 18 '25 edited Feb 18 '25

Now 3.1% ... the rate at which it is increasing is pretty alarming, and it is now at the highest percentage ever projected for an asteroid of that size.

The good news is that its spotted, 7 years away from any potential impact, and is relatively small ... nowhere near big enough to be an ELE.

Tunguska is a perfect reference because the estimated sizes are almost identical, however it wont be easy to compare speeds or composition since so little is known about Tunguska.

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u/8ofAll Feb 18 '25

It could just be a first of many more to come. Perhaps we’ve entered a more turbulent part within the galaxy.

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u/vessel_for_the_soul Feb 18 '25

Do you have a source on the risk increasing?

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u/qp0n Feb 18 '25

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/

3.1, was updated a few hours ago

Also I'm hearing the diameter estimation is trending towards the low end of that 130-330 feet range, current best guess around 175